China’s Population Declines as a Result of the Former ‘One-Child’ Policy
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has established an economically unsustainable model. Official corruption, economic mismanagement, suppression of creativity and innovation for control purposes, escalating debt, and environmental degradation are all contributing factors to the imminent collapse. China’s real estate market is already on the brink of bankruptcy, with major developers like Evergrande leaving buyers angered by unfinished homes they’ve already paid for.
But it is the destruction of human capital by the Communists over the past 75 years that not only brings the collapse closer but also ensures that China may never rise again. The one-child policy has especially led to the elimination of around 400 million productive, hardworking, and enterprising individuals. Coerced abortions under this policy have resulted in approximately half of each of the last two generations of Chinese never being born. China’s population is rapidly declining, with the famous “one-child” policy acting as a ticking time bomb that could see the country’s numbers fall below that of its main rival, the United States.
Furthermore, the anti-natal propaganda associated with the policy has created a culture where children are no longer valued and are seen as expensive luxuries. Despite the end of the policy in 2016, China’s birth rate has not recovered but continues to decline. In 2022, only 9.56 million children were born, and the CCP’s National Bureau of Statistics reluctantly admitted that China has one of the lowest birth rates globally. The officially stated fertility rate of 1.09 children per woman in 2022 suggests that the actual numbers are even lower. Before the one-child policy was implemented in 1981, Chinese women averaged 2.7 children, a number that was quickly halved.
However, due to the Chinese government’s habit of exaggerating successes and concealing failures, obtaining precise numbers is challenging. China claims a population of 1.41 billion, but University of Wisconsin demographer Yi Fuxian, drawing on a wide range of data, argues that the actual number is less than 1.28 billion. This discrepancy of 130 million is significant and larger than the population of all but nine countries globally. It reflects a systematic exaggeration of birth numbers in China over the past few decades. China’s population is aging faster than the CCP is willing to admit, and for the first time since Mao Zedong’s great famine of 1959-1961, it is declining. The “demographic dividend” that supported China’s rapid economic growth, military expansion, and strategic influence is gone.
Additionally, as the number of working-age individuals diminishes, labor costs will rise, and a larger portion of the economy will be dedicated to caring for the growing elderly population. Unlike China, other East Asian countries like Japan and South Korea became prosperous before their populations aged rapidly. China is still a middle-income country, with millions living in poverty. The declining birth rate also indicates that China’s economy is unlikely to recover from its current slump, regardless of the central government’s chosen economic policies. Chinese leaders, starting from Mao Zedong, have always seen the masses as an inexhaustible resource. None of the available tools, such as lower interest rates and export subsidies, can compensate for the absence of 100 million potential workers and consumers. Moreover, dwindling tax revenues and unsustainable government debt restrict the CCP’s policy options.
China’s problems will worsen as the population collapse gains momentum. If the CCP manages to stabilize the fertility rate at 1.1, Professor Yi’s projections indicate that China’s population would still decline to 440 million by 2100. However, considering the increasing reluctance of young Chinese women to have children, it is more likely that the fertility rate will resemble Hong Kong’s current rate of 0.8. In that case, China would have only 310 million people by the end of the century. Regardless of the scenario, the consequences will be catastrophic for both the Chinese economy and the CCP’s ambitious geopolitical pursuits. China will not dominate the 21st century as previously anticipated.
To provide perspective, let’s compare China’s forthcoming demographic collapse with that of its self-declared rival, the United States. America’s population is currently 340 million and still growing. By 2060, the US population is projected to reach 417 million, surpassing China’s population in the following decades. As China’s population dwindles, so will its geopolitical ambitions, as the CCP is forced to focus on internal stability. Even if the Chinese Communist Party were to fall, China’s birth dearth would pose a significant challenge for any future democratic government. China is not the only Asian nation struggling with a declining population; Japan and South Korea are also facing similar issues. However, unlike China, these two nations became prosperous before their populations aged.
Leaders of the CCP, from Mao Zedong onwards, have always seen China’s masses as an endless resource that they could squander at their discretion. None of them could have foreseen that their brutal one-child policy would lead to the demise of the Chinese dream. They not only buried the 400 million victims of their policy in unmarked graves but also buried their own aspirations of world domination.
Source link
