Manchin’s Decision Damages Democrats’ Senate Prospects and Fuels Speculation of White House Bid
Joe Manchin’s decision not to seek reelection virtually ensures that the Democratic Party will lose his Senate seat next year in deep-red West Virginia, making the party’s steep path to retaining its razor-thin Senate majority even more difficult. Some Democratic officials are also concerned that Manchin’s announcement frees him to pursue a third-party presidential bid that could ultimately undermine President Joe Biden’s reelection. The 76-year-old Manchin has raised the possibility of a presidential bid in the past, and he made direct reference to national ambitions in the retirement video he posted on social media Thursday. “What I will be doing is traveling the country and speaking out to see if there is an interest in creating a movement to mobilize the middle and bring Americans together,” Manchin said.
Manchin’s sudden announcement injects a new layer of uncertainty for Democratic leaders already anxious about the party’s prospects in 2024. Biden is seeking a second term despite persistent concerns about his age and economic leadership from voters in both major parties. At the same time, Democrats are clinging to a 51-49 Senate majority having narrowly lost their House majority last fall. Just an hour after Manchin’s announcement, a Boston-based group filed paperwork with the Federal Election Commission to form a draft committee designed to encourage Manchin and Utah Sen. Mitt Romney to launch a third-party presidential bid.
A Manchin spokesperson declined to comment on the group, while Romney distanced himself from it, despite the involvement of Massachusetts-based attorney Dan Winslow, who served as chief legal counsel to Romney when he served as the state’s governor. Still, the fact that Manchin is actively being encouraged to seek a presidential run sparked new anxiety among Democratic operatives who were already concerned about the impact of third parties in 2024.
Many Democratic leaders are taking No Labels more seriously. Backed by anonymous donations of tens of millions of dollars, the centrist group has already secured presidential ballot access in a dozen states with many more expected over the coming months. Its officials say it will decide early next year whether to launch a presidential ticket. “If Joe Manchin runs on the No Labels ticket, he would be responsible for sending Donald Trump back to the White House,” MoveOn Political Action executive director Rahna Epting said shortly after Manchin’s announcement.
“He wants to be part of the conversation so he’s not going to close the door on this (presidential run),” Bennett said. “But I really don’t see him doing this.” Manchin has long been friendly with No Labels, which has already begun holding private conversations with potential presidential nominees, Manchin among them. No Labels released a statement describing Manchin as “a tireless voice for America’s commonsense majority and a longtime ally of the No Labels movement.”
Meanwhile, Democrats acknowledge that their path to retaining the Senate majority will now be much more difficult. The party in 2024 is defending Democratic-held seats in West Virginia, Montana and Ohio — all states that Trump carried handily in 2020. With Democrats fearing that West Virginia is all but lost, they must now win every other Democratic-held seat in the nation to have a chance at holding the Senate majority in 2024. David Bergstein, a spokesman for the Senate Democrats campaign arm, insisted that his party still has “multiple pathways to protect and strengthen our Senate majority.”
Manchin was able to hold a Senate seat since 2012 thanks to a political brand decades in the making that helped him overcome West Virginia’s strong anti-Democratic bias. But in a state Trump carried by nearly 40 points in 2020, Manchin was quietly considered a significant underdog in a prospective reelection matchup against hugely popular Republican Gov. Jim Justice. The White House issued a statement praising Manchin’s dedication to the people of West Virginia and his accomplishments in Washington. Biden said the Manchin family “should feel proud of the Senator’s service to West Virginia and to our country.”
When asked about a prospective Manchin presidential run, Biden’s campaign declined to comment. Copyright 2023 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without permission.
