Number of Migrant Crossings Across Channel Decreases by 33% in 2023

The Home Office recorded a 15-day period at the end of 2023 without any further crossings due to bad weather conditions, marking the longest consecutive period of the year without any arrivals.

On Christmas Eve, Christmas Day, and Boxing Day, no Channel crossings occurred for the first time in five years, since current records began in 2018.

In 2023, the provisional annual total of crossings is 29,437, which is 36 percent lower than the record 45,774 crossings for 2022, making it the second-highest annual total on record, higher than the figure for 2021 (28,526).

Ministers are likely to argue that the figures demonstrate the effectiveness of the UK’s £480 million agreement with France to prevent migrants from making the journey, and also point to the effectiveness of the fast-track returns deal struck with Albania.

However, the Immigration Services Union predicts that the drop in arrivals in 2023 was likely a temporary trend, with expectations of higher numbers of Channel crossings in 2024.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s pledge to “stop the boats” was one of the five priorities set out at the start of 2023, as the political pressure to address the migrant crisis intensified.

While the Government’s sweeping asylum reforms under the Illegal Migration Act became law in July, it remains unclear when the rules will come into force. Additionally, the Home Office has not confirmed if it has met Sunak’s target of clearing the backlog of so-called “legacy” asylum applications by the end of 2023.

The promise to send migrants to Rwanda faced legal challenges and was ruled unlawful by the Supreme Court. Fresh legislation will be introduced before Parliament in January as a bid to address concerns raised by the court.

The number of migrants who have arrived in the UK after crossing the Channel has steadily increased and is approaching 70,000 since the Rwanda deal was signed in April 2022. Almost 40,000 people have made the journey since Sunak became prime minister six months later.

The number of arrivals per month began to fall toward the end of 2023, potentially due to seasonal changes in the amount of crossings being attempted as a result of the weather.

Experts predict that 2023’s low numbers of crossings may be a temporary trend, and larger numbers of Channel crossings are expected in the coming year.

Analysis of asylum decisions in 2023 by the Refugee Council suggested that three in every four migrants (76 percent) who cross the Channel could be recognized as refugees if the Government processed their applications. The council also estimated that around 15,000 asylum seekers are at risk of being deported to Rwanda under the Illegal Migration Act.

Refugee Council chief executive Enver Solomon advocates for upholding British values of fairness and compassion and ensuring that asylum seekers are given a fair hearing on UK soil, rather than closing down the asylum system, which he believes will result in vast cost, chaos, and human misery.