SurveyUSA Poll: Trump Holds 5-Point Lead Over Biden

Republican Donald Trump holds a five-point lead, 49% to 44%, over Democrat Joe Biden in the latest SurveyUSA poll in a head-to-head presidential matchup, with 7% of likely voters still undecided.

The survey, conducted nine months before the presidential election, highlights a significant shift in voter sentiment and emerging dynamics in the race.

A noteworthy finding from the poll suggests that undecided voters may not be wavering between Trump and Biden but rather grappling with political fatigue and uncertainty about whether to vote at all.

SurveyUSA indicates that 25% of undecided voters are likely to cast their ballots in November.

The introduction of a third candidate, such as Nikki Haley, triggers a notable response among undecided voters; 60% of those undecided between Trump and Biden opt to support Haley when given the option, indicating a potential shift away from traditional party affiliations.

However, the overall favorability ratings for all major candidates remain in negative territory. Trump holds a minus-6 rating, while Biden fares even worse at minus-16. Although not officially a candidate, Haley registers a minus-12 rating, indicating a mixed reception among voters.

In a scenario where Haley enters the race as an independent candidate, Trump maintains a lead in the national popular vote, securing 45% compared to Biden’s 40%, with Haley garnering 13%. Haley attracts support from many independents and moderates, particularly in crucial swing states.

Haley’s entry into the race reshuffles the electoral landscape, impacting voter preferences across demographic groups and regions. Trump’s lead among voters of Asian and other ethnicities narrows from 47% to 45%, and Biden faces increased deficits from 2 points to 5 points among young voters and a 3-point to a 5-point deficit in key Midwest and southern states.

The addition of a fourth candidate, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., further alters the dynamics of the race, expanding Trump’s margin to 7 points, 43% to 36%, with 11 % now backing Haley. Kennedy’s support draws from Trump and Biden voters, highlighting the potential for a fragmented electorate.

According to the survey, among independents, Haley trails Biden by a margin of only four points, with 24% support compared to Biden’s 28%. In a hypothetical two-way race between Biden and Trump, Haley garners a substantial 60% level of support among undecided voters.

Haley demonstrates considerable strength in regions typically associated with strong support for Trump, particularly in the mountain states. Specifically, she outperforms her national support average by a significant margin, securing 17% in states such as Idaho, Montana, Utah, and Wyoming. Moreover, the survey results indicate that in these areas, Haley draws more support from Trump (4 points) than Biden (3 points).

SurveyUSA’s poll, conducted online from Jan. 31 to Feb. 2, surveyed 1,500 U.S. adults, with 1,048 respondents identified as likely voters for the 2024 presidential election. The survey’s margin of error was not provided.