The Biden Administration is Concerned About a Potential ‘October Surprise’ from North Korea

Biden administration officials are getting increasingly worried that North Korea might engage in more aggressive military actions, such as conducting a nuclear test close to the U.S. presidential election in November, as reported by NBC News.

Senior U.S. officials have also indicated that a military alliance between North Korea and Russia could aid Kim Jong Un in expanding his country’s nuclear capabilities and escalating tensions in the Asia-Pacific region.

“We have no doubts that North Korea will engage in provocations this year. The question is how escalatory these actions will be,” said a U.S. intelligence official as reported by NBC News.

The officials further revealed that Russian President Vladimir Putin might be prompting North Korea to take its most provocative military actions in a decade close to the election.

U.S. intelligence officials have accused Russia of interfering in the 2016 election.

Recent reports suggest that North Korea seems to be preparing to launch its second military spy satellite into space, according to South Korea’s military.

In recent months, North Korea has been conducting missile tests to enhance its weapons arsenal. Analysts believe that North Korea aims to bolster its leverage in future diplomacy with the U.S. by expanding its arsenal.

“2024 is expected to be a challenging year,” noted Victor Cha, senior vice president for Asia and Korea chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, in an interview with NBC News. “It’s going to be a bit of a roller coaster.”

U.S. officials have been anticipating a nuclear test from North Korea and have prepared contingency plans for possible aggressive actions by Kim, such as shelling South Korea’s border islands or engaging in provocative actions in the demilitarized zone with South Korea.

“We are ready and prepared,” assured a senior administration official.

According to U.S. intelligence officials, Russia is supplying North Korea with nuclear submarine and ballistic missile technology. There are concerns that Putin is assisting Kim in developing North Korea’s first submarine capable of launching a nuclear-armed missile.

In return, North Korea provides Russia with significant amounts of munitions, likely old and unreliable, for its involvement in the conflict in Ukraine.

Last week, Kim’s influential sister once again denied arms exchanges with Russia, as reported by state media KCNA.

By exercising its veto power on the U.N. Security Council, Russia is also shielding North Korea from sanctions enforcement measures intended to restrain its nuclear program.

“This marks a significant shift,” stated a second senior administration official to NBC News.

The Associated Press and Reuters contributed to this story.