Trump’s strong support in the Sun Belt could pose a threat in the Rust Belt area

Donald Trump’s initial election reshaped American politics, bringing Pennsylvania and Michigan into the Republican column for the first time since the 1980s.

However, these states didn’t remain loyal as they voted for Joe Biden in the 2020 election.

The second Trump election saw the shift of Arizona and Georgia, long-standing Republican states, to the Democrat.

Now, the question remains: What will Trump’s next political map look like?

Polls currently show Trump leading in both the Sun Belt and Rust Belt regions, with black and Hispanic voters potentially leaning towards him, much to the excitement of Republicans.

Could this election alter political demographics as drastically as the previous ones did with electoral geography?

While the possibility exists, Trump should heed a caution from his experience in the 2020 election.

He cannot underestimate the importance of the Rust Belt, regardless of the allure of the Sun Belt and its demographics.

 Nevertheless, optimism is hard to suppress.

Recent polls reveal Trump leading by five points in Arizona and even more impressively, by 13 points in Nevada, a state that hasn’t voted Republican since 2004.

Moreover, Georgia seems to be turning red, with no polls showing a lead for the Democrats since Trump and Biden’s last clash.

After a tumultuous four years, voters might associate Trump with a ray of sunshine.

Two of Biden’s weak points are buoying the Republican’s chances in the Sun Belt.

Firstly, the administration’s handling of immigration issues at the southern border has backfired, impacting Nevada, Georgia, and especially Arizona’s electorate.

Secondly, ethnic diversity in these regions seems to be working in favor of Trump, with Black and Latino voters showing signs of turning away from Biden, per NYT/Siena polling.

While Trump still has ground to cover, the loss of support among these groups, particularly Black voters who heavily supported Biden in 2020, poses a serious concern for the incumbent.

Biden is visibly concerned, making efforts to connect with Black voters, even facing dissent due to his policies regarding Israel, as seen at Morehouse College’s commencement address.

The dissent within the Democratic coalition doesn’t guarantee Trump’s return to the White House automatically.

Even if he secures Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia, he’ll need to flip at least one more state to secure the Electoral College votes required for victory.

Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin in the Rust Belt region present Trump’s best chances, where the White vote is likely to be the decisive factor.

While Trump saw a decline in support among White voters nationwide in 2020, especially in suburban and non-college-educated demographics, these Rust Belt states have a substantial White majority that cannot be ignored.

Winning the Sun Belt and making inroads with Black and Hispanic voters is important for Trump, but reclaiming the Rust Belt states and the White voters lost in 2020 should be his main focus.

The map Trump drew in the Rust Belt in 2016 remains the key to victory.