Kamala may not be the better option, but Biden is sinking

If President Biden is replaced in the presidential race by elite Democrats, the most likely replacement would be Kamala Harris.

Many analysts have observed that the vice president is already polling ahead of Biden against Donald Trump, even before she has had the opportunity to present her case.

While I don’t predict the future, I understand that the experts in DC can’t accurately foresee how voters will react to a candidate.

History is full of candidates seen as sure bets who end up falling short. Voters can be loyal partisans or driven by intuition and emotion, defying the rationalism often ascribed to them by experts.

Therefore, it would be a mistake to assume that Harris’ popularity is guaranteed to rise once she campaigns to voters.

In reality, it’s just as likely for her popularity to decline.

In comparison, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton reached a historic high favorability rating of 66% in 2011, which remained above 50% until the 2016 campaign started.

These are stronger numbers than Harris’ current ratings.

By September 2018, Clinton’s favorability had decreased to 36%. Even among Democrats, her favorability dropped by 10 points from the start of the campaign to the election.

What will happen when Harris is faced with a well-funded opposition campaign that launches continuous attacks against her?

Many voters are unfamiliar with Harris’ track record, while Trump’s negatives are already reflected in the polls.

What new arguments will Harris bring against the former president that Biden hasn’t already made?

Once you label your opponent as the worst possible thing, there isn’t much room to escalate the rhetoric further.

Furthermore, what platform will Harris run on for the presidency? Will she be forced to run on Biden’s record?

Although a change would shift the focus away from Biden’s weaknesses, it’s essential to remember that the administration’s policies were unpopular even before the acknowledgment of the president’s declining mental state.

Biden was trailing Trump on critical issues even before the debates.

According to Gallup, the most important non-economic issue for voters is immigration.

Harris was tasked with handling the US-Mexico border crisis by Biden in March 2021.

By May 2022, the US had the highest number of encounters at the border in a month, exceeding 241,000.

By December 2023, this number had surpassed 250,000.

In a 2019 appearance on “The View,” Harris argued that illegal immigration should be treated as a civil enforcement issue, not a criminal one.

Perhaps she was simply following through on her promise.

It’s possible that Harris may try to distance herself from Biden.

However, Biden’s perceived moderation and decency were significant factors that propelled him to victory in the weak 2020 Democratic primary field.

How would a far-left presidential candidate, who hadn’t completed a full Senate term, help Democrats in competitive states?

There are other Democratic figures being considered, such as Gretchen Whitmer, Josh Shapiro, and Gavin Newsom, who could potentially recalibrate the debate more effectively.

But would Democrats truly replace both the president and the first black/South Asian/female vice president in history? It seems like a risky move.

Although Barack Obama demonstrated that one can win the presidency without significant real-world achievements, Harris has yet to display the political acumen needed to be a successful national candidate.

There is little evidence that independents or Democrats are fond of Harris.

Recall how her primary campaign in 2019 deteriorated into disarray and lacked support from within her own party.

Even in her role as vice president, she has faced challenges in running her office.

A candidate who supports pro-Hamas protesters as showing the appropriate human emotion or perpetuates the Jussie Smollett hoax as a “modern-day lynching” even after an investigation has begun likely has a history of making ill-advised statements.

Nevertheless, there’s always the possibility that voters may appreciate her confusing tautologies and abrasive personality.

In many ways, Harris is already positioning herself for the presidency.

There is a significant likelihood that Biden may be unable to complete a second term due to mental decline, physical incapacity, or other reasons.

Everyone, including Democrats, the White House press corps, and attentive observers, was aware of this prior to the president’s disappointing debate performance.

Even if Biden remains in the race, he is not showing signs of improvement or becoming less fragile. Benjamin Button is a fictional character.

It’s known that Americans have voted for candidates who are barely coherent in the past.

Therefore, perhaps being the running mate is the most effective strategy for Harris to eventually become president.

David Harsanyi is a senior editor at The Federalist. Twitter @davidharsanyi