Analysts: Moscow Utilizing Former Wagner Fighters to Bolster Military Presence in Africa

In a new report by the Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM), it is revealed that Russia’s Africa Corps, previously known as the Wagner Group, is growing in terms of strategy, capacity, manpower, and military equipment, contrary to predictions by Western intelligence agencies.

The report states that after the suspected assassination of Wagner founder Yevgeny Prigozhin in August 2023, it was expected that Russia’s military influence in Africa would decline. However, two leading security analysts from Eastern Europe argue that Moscow has reshaped this group into the Africa Corps to exert control over existing regions and expand to new ones.

Security and military experts Filip Bryjka and Jedrzej Czerep reveal that the Africa Corps, now under three Russian state security services, has plans to have up to 40,000 troops in Africa by the end of 2024. Despite Moscow’s commitments in Ukraine, the report suggests that President Putin is determined to establish a significant military presence on the resource-rich African continent.

The report also details how the Africa Corps has supported Malian forces against separatists, demonstrating its readiness for large-scale military operations in Africa. The Kremlin aims to create an anti-Western bloc stretching from Guinea to Eritrea, providing Russia access to valuable natural resources.

Russian troops are already present in Africa, with former Wagner fighters comprising around half of the 6,000 troops on the ground. The Africa Corps has taken over and expanded Wagner’s operations, using the funds from exploiting natural resources to finance their activities.

The report outlines Russia’s plans to establish a center of influence and a logistical hub in Libya, with a permanent naval base in Tobruk. Other regions like Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger have expelled French forces in favor of Africa Corps troops, indicating Moscow’s growing influence in the region.

To counter the Africa Corps’ activities in Africa, the report recommends better coordination of sanctions by Western powers and potential cyberattacks to disrupt infrastructure used for disinformation campaigns.