Harris’ controversial campaign seeks to energize a divided coalition

Kamala Harris and the media paint Donald Trump and Republicans as radical, but Democrats are the real extremists — and it’s getting worse as November approaches. 

The left’s electoral strategy is predicated on riling up voters with ever-more divisive and destructive ideas. The strategy is risky and perhaps even self-defeating, yet Harris is rushing in that direction. 

She will likely run the most radical campaign in modern history. And Trump shouldn’t let her get away with it.

I’ve spent 30 years conducting and analyzing polls, and like many in my profession, I’ve concluded that the single most important political development of the 21st century is the migration of white voters to the Republican Party.

The GOP can now count on the consistent support of about 60% of white voters, if not more — up from about 50% to 55% previously.

And while demographic changes are slowly lowering whites’ share of the electorate, they still represent about ⅔ of all American voters — meaning Democrats must maintain a strong coalition based on non-white voters to prevail.

The Democratic coalition that emerged in Barack Obama’s election in 2008 and remains today centers on four groups: blacks, Hispanics, single women and young voters between the ages of 18 and 29. 

Since 2008, Republican presidential candidates have never won more than 37% of any of these groups and usually performed much worse, according to Roper Center data.

To win in 2024, Harris must claim Obama-like levels of support among them all, since her party’s erosion among white voters means she’s unlikely to gain the 41% of the white vote that Biden did in 2020.

The challenge is to appeal to each part of her coalition. 

Since Obama’s victories, the Democratic Party strategy has been to play to each group’s identity, striking often divisive notes to drive turnout. 

They’ve met black voters with messaging about America’s widespread racism, while Hispanics have heard a similar negative message.

Democrats reach single women with warnings about sexism and abortion and young voters with a variety of cultural and economic catnip, from marijuana legalization to climate virtue-signaling.

The problem with this strategy is that with every election, Democrats have had to push the envelope to keep the coalition together — especially after Hillary Clinton failed to do so in 2016.

Hence the left’s radicalization over the past eight years: its current hostility to the police, belief in open borders, support for childhood sex changes and demands for rampant student debt cancellation. 

Far from a platform based on principles, the Democratic Party’s agenda is impelled by a desperate attempt to keep its coalition energized.

The job of grievance-peddling now falls to Harris, and she’s already tacking further left.

Notably, she has immediately backed more student debt cancellation and has stridently defended an expansive approach to abortion access as a means of appealing to young and single women.

Perhaps the only moderation she’s shown is her quiet announcement that she no longer wants an immediate ban on fracking — a calculated retreat designed to help her in Pennsylvania. 

As the campaign progresses, Harris will likely move into more radical territory, potentially, for example, resurfacing her past support for reparations for the descendants of slaves.

Will Donald Trump be similarly extreme? Not even close. 

Trump’s rhetoric is a major departure from political norms, with its heavy emphasis on personal attacks. But policy-wise, the former president isn’t driving voters to the polls on the crazy train.

He generally talks about supporting the police, expanding opportunity, cutting taxes and the federal bureaucracy, standing with the military and other run-of-the-mill Republican priorities. 

Trump’s relative policy normalcy — combined with Democrats’ increasing ideological extremism — is already drawing new voters to the Republican fold. 

Polls consistently show him doing better with blacks and Hispanics compared to 2020 and 2016, likely because a growing number are fed up with the left’s agenda and its resulting record of failure. 

Perhaps most crucially, young men have begun a mass migration rightward, threatening a key part of the Democratic coalition.

These defections are already driving Harris’ turn toward radical identity politics: Instead of trying to win lost voters back, she’s revving up those who remain, hoping they’ll turn out in massive numbers.

The result is a great American tragedy. 

One of our country’s two great parties has decided it can’t win without pitting people against each other and undermining core constitutional, economic and moral principles.

The other party projects a unifying message of opportunity and aspiration — behind a standard-bearer who resists appeals to the country’s better angels. 

But it’s a message Harris must oppose at all costs for her strategy to work.

John Tillman is CEO of the American Culture Project.