Study Finds Most Future NHS Appointments Will Not be With GPs
Population growth and a decreasing number of GPs per patient in England are leading towards a potential ‘tipping point’ where the majority of individuals may soon be unable to access a doctor’s appointment.
Recent research suggests that England is approaching a critical juncture where the majority of consultations in medical practices may no longer be conducted by GPs.
Over the past decade, there has been a 20% reduction in the number of GP practices in England coinciding with an increase in the population registering for medical services.
Researchers from University College London and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine examined NHS data in conjunction with information from various sources, including the Care Quality Commission.
There has been an 11% increase in the number of individuals registered with an NHS GP practice in England between 2013 and 2023. Simultaneously, the total number of doctors’ surgeries has decreased by one-fifth.
Statistics indicate a rise in GP lists, with the average practice now serving 40% more patients than a decade ago. Large practices with over 20,000 patients have also become more common.
The study highlights a decline in the number of full-time equivalent GPs per 1,000 patients, particularly among male practitioners. Meanwhile, other staff roles like nurses, pharmacists, social prescribers, and physician associates have seen a significant increase.
While GPs continue to account for half of all appointments, concerns have been raised regarding the sustainability of the current system, prompting expectations of a shift towards non-GP consultations in the future.
Dr. Luisa Pettigrew, the lead author of the study, emphasized the importance of retaining GPs in the healthcare system to ensure quality patient care.
The government has made commitments to address the challenges faced by general practice in England and enhance the quality of care provided to patients.
Professor Kamila Hawthorne from the Royal College of GPs stressed the necessity of recruiting and retaining more GPs to meet the increasing demands for healthcare services.
PA Media contributed to this report.
