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Analysis: The Crucial Showdown of the Snap Election in the Coming Weeks


While the Conservatives have made their desire for an election today clear, a second federal party, the Bloc Québécois, has unequivocally stated this week that they want the passage of two crucial bills before November to maintain their support for the Liberals.

The NDP, on the other hand, has indicated that they will evaluate confidence votes on a case-by-case basis.

Both the NDP and the Bloc have previously stated their intentions to vote against the Conservatives’ non-confidence motion on Sept. 25, emphasizing their autonomy in making decisions on such matters.

Various factors are influencing each party’s stance and could impact when they decide to withdraw their support for the Liberals.

With 153 seats in the House of Commons, the Liberals require the backing of either the Bloc’s 33 MPs or the NDP’s 25 to survive confidence votes. Current polls suggest that in an election today, the Conservatives would likely secure a majority government.

Crucial Weeks

When NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh terminated the party’s supply-and-confidence agreement with the Liberals on Sept. 4, which had kept them in power until June 2025, he cited the Liberals’ perceived allegiance to corporate interests as the reason. This agreement, established in March 2022, involved supporting key legislation like pharmacare and a national dental care plan that the NDP advocated for.

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