How Trump Could Win the Popular Vote with Help from Blue States

Democrats should be prepared for a potential shock in four weeks — the chance of not just a victory for former President Donald Trump, but a victory so substantial that Trump surpasses Vice President Kamala Harris in the popular vote.

While Trump can secure the White House by winning enough battleground states, achieving more votes than Harris nationwide would demonstrate his higher popularity and reinforce the strength of his message compared to his win against former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in 2016.

Trump’s route to this potential upset goes through the House of Representatives, with his chances of winning the popular vote closely tied to the GOP’s ability to extend its House majority.

If Harris secures Biden-like numbers, she is likely to win the popular vote but could still lose the swing states, and thus, the presidency. Conversely, if Harris garners Clinton-like numbers, Trump stands a high chance of winning both the battleground states and the popular vote.

As the underdog, Trump is performing better than in his previous races, and Democrats should brace themselves for possible disappointment while Republicans should seize the opportunity at hand.

Daniel McCarthy is the editor of Modern Age: A Conservative Review.