8 Key Insights from the Victorian By-Elections and Their Potential Impact on the Federal Election
The recent Victorian by-elections saw a significant shift away from Labor and the Greens, raising questions about whether it was a swing from the left or another factor at play.
News Analysis
The by-elections on Feb. 8 in Victoria for the seats of Prahran and Werribee proved to be a turning point for the Liberal opposition, challenging the incumbent Labor government and the left-wing Greens.
While the seats have different voter profiles, they both indicated tough times ahead for left-leaning parties in Australia.
Issues with vote counting emerged in Werribee, a seat with migrant communities and a working-class population, traditionally a Labor stronghold. Former Treasurer Tim Pallas had held the seat since 1979.
However, the primary vote for Labor saw a significant 16.6 percent swing away, and a 10.3 percent swing after preferences in the latest count by the Victorian Electoral Commission on Feb. 14.
Despite the close call, Labor’s John Lister managed to retain the seat with a slim margin over Liberal candidate Steve Murphy in the two-candidate preferred vote.
On the other hand, Prahran, an inner-city seat with young and affluent voters near St. Kilda beach, saw Liberal candidate Rachel Westaway leading in the two-candidate preferred vote, hinting at a potential shift in Melbourne politics.
According to Griffith University political expert Paul Williams, the upcoming federal election will likely focus on the cost of living, with parties emphasizing their approaches to addressing issues like interest rates, housing prices, rising rents, healthcare costs, and energy bills.
Williams suggests that the recent by-election results do not necessarily spell doom for Labor nationally, as the electorate is more concerned about policies affecting their daily lives rather than traditional political labels.
While the Greens maintained their support in Prahran, there are indications of a broader shift in voter sentiment, with growing interest in issues like local civilian nuclear energy.
The results of the by-elections are expected to influence the strategies of both major parties in the upcoming federal election, with a focus on addressing the cost of living and engaging with independent candidates and right-wing parties.
Overall, the by-elections indicate a changing political landscape in Victoria, prompting both major parties to re-evaluate their platforms and campaign tactics moving forward.
