Advisers suggest that a second term for Trump would focus on dismantling IEA’s Green initiatives.

If Donald Trump is re-elected as president, he is likely to advocate for replacing the head of the International Energy Agency to shift the organization’s focus back towards maximizing fossil fuel output rather than prioritizing efforts to combat climate change, according to sources familiar with the situation.

Based in Paris, the IEA has been providing research and data to industrialized nations for over 50 years to help shape policies related to energy security, supply, and investment. The United States contributes about a quarter of the agency’s funding.

In recent times, the IEA has expanded its scope beyond oil and gas supply to include clean energy, aligning with member governments’ aims to achieve their objectives under the Paris climate agreement and accelerate the shift away from reliance on fossil fuels.

This transformation gained momentum during President Joe Biden’s administration, resulting in energy policy recommendations that irked global oil producers like Saudi Arabia and contradicted Trump’s energy agenda, which advocated for boosting the traditional oil and gas industries through increased production.

According to five individuals familiar with Trump’s energy-related perspectives, including donors, policy experts, and former administration officials, if re-elected, Trump would likely exert pressure on the IEA to conform to his pro-fossil fuel policies.

While the Trump campaign declined to provide a comment on the matter and Trump himself has not publicly addressed the IEA, the Heritage Foundation, an organization closely linked to the campaign, is recommending that the U.S. leverage its influence within the agency to facilitate the replacement of the IEA’s current director, Fatih Birol.

“The U.S. should definitely devise a strategy to bring in new leadership at the IEA,” stated Mario Loyola, a senior research fellow at Heritage, criticizing Birol’s emphasis on “net-zero fairytales” as demand for fossil fuels continues to rise.

Birol declined to comment for this article.

Although the director of the IEA is elected by member nations, the U.S. wields significant influence within the organization due to its funding and geopolitical stature. The remaining 30 IEA members are mostly European countries but also include Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Mexico, and South Korea.

A move by Trump to steer the IEA back towards promoting fossil fuels in the global energy mix would run counter to the stated positions and energy policies of the EU and other key IEA members.

In the event of a new Trump administration, other energy policy priorities would take precedence initially, such as reversing the Biden administration’s pause on liquefied natural gas export licenses, expanding domestic drilling, or withdrawing the U.S. from the Paris climate accord, as suggested by Heritage fellow Mike McKenna, a former Trump energy policy adviser.

“Changing the leadership at the IEA could become a focus in the second year of a Trump administration,” McKenna added.

During his presidency, Trump contemplated discontinuing U.S. funding to the IEA but ultimately decided to maintain it, partly due to the relatively low cost involved. The U.S. currently pays around $6 million annually in IEA dues.

However, the situation could evolve if he secures re-election.

“Republicans feel that the IEA is mainly controlled by Europeans and prioritizes European energy security perspectives that align with Democratic priorities,” noted Dave Banks, former special assistant for international energy and environment at the National Security Council during Trump’s tenure.

Climate Activist

Since taking on the role of director of the IEA in 2015, Birol has been instrumental in steering the agency towards making climate change mitigation a central focus of its work. The IEA projects that global oil demand will peak by the end of this decade.

In early 2021, shortly after Biden assumed office, the IEA released a report emphasizing the urgent need to halt new drilling investments worldwide to limit the global temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius as outlined in the Paris Agreement.

Since then, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), comprised of major oil producers like Saudi Arabia, has clashed repeatedly with the IEA and accused it of demonizing oil producers.

Before leading the IEA, Birol had worked at OPEC’s headquarters in Vienna in the early 1990s.

Birol’s focus on sustainability led Republican lawmakers in the U.S. to criticize the IEA for aligning too closely with the Biden administration’s policy agenda. In March, two prominent Republican lawmakers declared that the agency had transformed into an “energy transition cheerleader.”

John Kerry, who served as Biden’s climate envoy until March, revealed that the Biden administration collaborated closely with the IEA, relying on its analysis to shape key policies aimed at decarbonizing the U.S. economy by 2050.

Kerry refuted claims that the IEA is biased towards green causes, emphasizing that the agency aims to provide accurate information on the climate challenge.

“Due to the climate crisis and the leadership at IEA, they are focused on portraying the climate challenge truthfully,” Kerry stated prior to leaving his position.

The IEA defended its analyses as impartial and evidence-based.

“The IEA scenarios…are the product of an independent and detailed analytical effort, informed by the latest data on markets, policies and technological costs,” stated Birol in a letter responding to Republican lawmakers in April.

However, if Trump were to secure a second term, the IEA would face pressure to revert to its original focus on oil and gas supply issues.

“I firmly believe that if President Trump is re-elected, the U.S. will collaborate with like-minded members like Japan to restore the IEA to its previous role as an unbiased, non-political energy analysis and forecasting agency and security watchdog,” remarked Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy consultancy.

Trump campaign donor and CEO of Colorado drilling firm Canary, Dan Eberhart, highlighted the importance of perspective in this debate.

“Trump’s top priority has always been U.S. energy security. If the IEA’s work is hindering necessary investments in traditional energy development, Trump will see that as a threat to America’s economy and security,” Eberhart asserted.