Billionaire Ray Dalio Warns that the US is on the Verge of Civil Unrest

Billionaire investor and Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio believes there is a 35% to 40% chance of a civil war in the United States, saying the country is “on the brink” of one.

Dalio, still an adviser and board member at the hedge fund, made the comment in an interview with the Financial Times that was published Wednesday.

“We are now on the brink,” Dalio told FT, adding, we “don’t yet know if we will cross over into much more turbulent times.”

His 35%-40% estimate came from research regarding a topline discussion about what he sees as threats to Treasury bonds. The debt levels are an acute danger to the Treasury market but so is increasing polarization, Dalio said. His civil war scenario isn’t necessarily one in which people “grab guns and start shooting,” though he believes that’s possible.

Rather, Dalio told FT it’s more likely that “people move to different states that are more aligned with what they want and they don’t follow the decisions of federal authorities of the opposite political persuasion.”

He called November’s election the most important of his lifetime, calling it a test of whether democracy can “work well.”

“Will there be an acceptance of the rules and an ability to work well under those rules?” he asked.

He broke down the differences between Republican presumptive nominee Donald Trump and President Joe Biden but opted against endorsing either.

“Trump will follow more rightist, nationalistic, isolationist, protectionist, nonregulatory policies — and more aggressive policies to fight enemies internally and externally, including political enemies. Biden, and even more so the Democratic Party without Biden, will be more the opposite, though they, too, will play political hardball,” he told FT.

He also put forth a long-shot candidate after seeing Taylor Swift in concert.

“I saw how she brought people of all sorts — and many nationalities — together. It felt like it would have been impossible to fight,” Dalio told FT. “I say this partly as a joke, but if she ran for president and would listen to great advisers, I’d consider supporting her.”

Dalio, 74, stepped down as CEO of Bridgewater in 2017, as chairman at the end of 2021, and as a co-investment officer last October.

Mark Swanson

Mark Swanson, a Newsmax writer and editor, has nearly three decades of experience covering news, culture and politics.

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