Cook Report Shifts Arizona Senate Race to ‘Democrat Favored’

The Cook Political Report recently changed its rating for the Arizona Senate race from “toss-up” to “lean Democrat” due to the absence of a viable Republican candidate in Kari Lake.

Kari Lake is facing off against Rep. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz., in the competition for the open Senate seat left vacant by Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, I-Ariz., who decided not to seek re-election.

“While Republicans in most states have managed to recruit more acceptable candidates, Arizona remains a challenge,” stated Jessica Taylor in her analysis for the Cook Political Report, a bipartisan election predictor. “Ever since Kari Lake announced her candidacy for the seat, Republicans have faced difficulty in finding a strong contender.”

Kari Lake was defeated by Democrat Gov. Katie Hobbs in the 2022 Arizona gubernatorial race.

The outcome of the Arizona Senate race is crucial in determining whether Republicans can regain Senate control in the upcoming November elections.

The Lake campaign informed the Washington Examiner that she is “well positioned to win in November.”

“She continues to raise substantial funds, is making gains in polls, and has a strong connection to [former] President [Donald] Trump, who is ahead of [President] Joe Biden in Arizona,” the Lake campaign spokesperson told the Examiner. “[Voters] are unhappy with the Biden/Gallego policies on open borders and high inflation.”

Reports indicate that the Lake campaign plans to launch a $10 million advertising campaign in the fall. Gallego has outpaced her in fundraising by $3 million so far.

Recent polls, like the New York Times/Siena College poll released Monday, show Gallego leading by 3 points, while The Hill/Emerson University poll from last month had Gallego up by 2 points.

“Though it remains a competitive race and may fall within the margin of error, we can no longer categorize it as one of the most competitive Senate contests,” Taylor wrote in her analysis.

The Center for Politics also rates Arizona as “lean Democrat” in its latest rankings report dated April 17.

With the retirement of Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin in West Virginia, Republicans are expected to secure the open seat there, necessitating the flip of one more seat to regain Senate majority. Cook’s current ratings list Montana, Ohio, and Nevada as toss-up states.