Democrats face uncertain Senate landscape due to 5 pivotal races

With Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., retiring, the 2024 Senate landscape has become even more fraught for Democrats, who were already in a tight spot as they seek to retain their slim majority in the upper chamber.

Democrats hope to retain seats in West Virginia, Montana and Ohio, where the Republican presidential nominee will be heavily favored to win.

To lose West Virginia would mean Democrats would not be able to sustain another loss and keep their majority status, which currently stands at 51-49.

These are the five key Senate races to watch, according to an analysis by The Hill:

West Virginia

Thought by many to be the only Democrat who could keep the seat blue, Manchin’s decision to retire from the Senate all but guarantees that West Virginia will vote red next year, propelling Republicans closer to the majority.

Manchin’s decision came amid a drop in favorability ratings and as he was facing a potential matchup with West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice, who is heavily favored to win the GOP primary over Rep. Alex Mooney, R-W.Va. Justice is supported by former President Donald Trump, while Mooney is backed by the Club for Growth.

Montana

With Manchin out of the race, Republicans are looking to push Sen. Jon Tester, D-Mont., out the door in their quest to recapture the Senate.

Similar to Manchin, Tester is widely considered the only Democrat who could win in Montana; Trump won the state by 16 points.

Tester is expected to face Tim Sheehy, a businessman recruited by the GOP, in a presidential election year with Trump at the top of the ballot.

While Democrats have confidence in Tester, they are realistic about the contest ahead.

“This is going to be a hard, hard, hard race,” John LaBombard, Democrat strategist and former top aide to Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, I-Ariz., and former Sen. Claire McCaskill, D-Mo., told The Hill. “But I won’t bet against Sen. Tester.”

Ohio

Democrats in Ohio are hoping voter enthusiasm for abortion access will help secure a fourth term for Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio.

A 56% majority of Ohio voters enshrined abortion access into the state’s constitution this month, striking a blow to the state’s GOP, including Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose, who is one of the top Senate candidates, along with businessman Bernie Moreno.

While Moreno and Republican state Sen. Matt Dolan are able to self-finance their campaigns for U.S. Senate, LaRose struggled to raise funds in the third quarter, putting him much further behind. A Republican-led effort to raise the vote threshold for referendums also failed earlier this year.

“On paper he’s impressive,” a Democrat strategist told The Hill of LaRose. “But how many of these candidates have we seen that are great on paper, but lack some of this ‘X factor’ that the GOP base wants?”

The key question in the Ohio race is whether Trump will weigh in with a coveted endorsement. According to The Hill, Moreno is considered the favorite to receive it, but Trump has been much more circumspect in his Senate endorsements this cycle.

Arizona

The National Republican Senatorial Committee is trying to raise GOP Senate candidate Kari Lake’s standing among party voters, while simultaneously boosting incumbent Sen. Krysten Sinema, I-Ariz., among Democrat voters and demolishing Democrat candidate Rep. Ruben Gallego.

According to a recent poll, nearly a quarter of Republican voters would vote for Sinema, prompting the GOP to release a new ad in an attempt to soften that group.

Republican operatives in the state welcomed the effort, as they question what their chances are with a number of variables undecided.

“It’s good that they’re doing this now,” a Republican strategist told The Hill. “It will tell us the long-term viability of this race before presidential spending is absurd in the state. Thus far, it seems like Lake has learned some lessons, but that can change any day that she wakes up and does something off playbook.”

Pennsylvania

In one of the few races in which the candidates are virtually decided, Sen. Bob Casey, D-Pa., is potentially facing his toughest battle yet for reelection.

Unlike last year, when he lost to Mehmet Oz, challenger David McCormick has basically cleared the primary field, giving him a straight shot to November 2024.

The Republican candidate is also starting to make some Democrats take notice, including Tester.

“Bob Casey was supposed to have an easy race,” Tester told Democrat donors at a fundraiser in Hollywood. “I’ve watched that race very closely, because it may not be near as easy as we were hoping.”