Economist Predicts Trump has a 66.6% Chance of Winning

According to a new forecast, Former President Donald Trump has a 2-in-3 chance of returning to the White House, while President Joe Biden currently only has a 1-in-3 chance of winning reelection, The Economist model says.

In June 2020, the same model gave Biden an 83% chance of winning the White House. The Economist model combines state and national polls with economic indicators to predict election results across the country by running over 10,000 simulations of the election.

The model currently shows Trump winning 296 Electoral College votes with Biden receiving 242, with 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency. Just one month ago, on June 12, the model showed Trump with a 54-in-100 chance of winning and Biden with a 45-in-100 chance.

The Economist says the election will be determined by six states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, which combine for 77 electoral votes. In the current model, Trump leads in each of those states.

The forecast also ranks the most important states to each major party candidate. Michigan is considered most pivotal for Biden, and Pennsylvania is deemed most important for Trump. The model also shows Trump with a 45% to 44.2% edge in an average of national polls.

Recent reports suggest that Democrats hope the abortion issue can help flip Florida, but The Economist model gives Trump a 94-in-100 chance of winning Florida and Texas, while Biden has a 99-in-100 chance of winning California and New York.