Emerson Poll finds Gallego ahead of Lake by 6 points in Arizona Senate race

Democrat Rep. Ruben Gallego leads Kari Lake by six points in a hypothetical three-way Arizona Senate race, a key contest that will have a major impact on control of the upper chamber in November, according to an Emerson College poll released Thursday.

In the survey, Gallego leads Lake 36% to 30% with incumbent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, an Independent, pulling in 21%. However, Sinema, who changed affiliation in 2022 from Democrat after winning the seat in 2018, has not yet announced a reelection bid.

In a head-to-head matchup, Gallego leads Lake by seven points, 46% to 39%, with 15% undecided, according to the poll.

“With Sinema on the ballot, she splits the vote among independents with Gallego, 30% to 28%, with another 20% supporting Lake,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in the analysis. “However in a head-to-head between Gallego and Lake, independents break for the Democrat: 42% support Gallego, while 30% back Lake.”

Further, male voters said they support Gallego over Lake, 44% to 42%, in the head-to-head matchup, while women voters said they support Gallego over Lake by 11 points, 47% to 36%.

Cook Political Report lists the Arizona race as a toss-up with Sinema. Democrats assuredly are going to lose the West Virginia seat long held by the retiring Sen. Joe Manchin. Cook lists that as solid Republican, whoever comes out of that primary. Democrats are trying to hold a 51-49 majority.

Gallego leads Lake by three points in a Noble Predictive Insights survey, also released Thursday.

Gallego is a five-term congressman in Arizona’s 3rd district.

Emerson College Polling surveyed 1,000 registered voters from Feb. 16-19. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3 points with a confidence level of 95%.