Emerson Poll Shows Biden with a 2-Point Lead over Trump in Michigan

President Joe Biden hasn’t seen much good news lately in national polls regarding the 2024 election, especially in battleground states. But in Michigan he is leading former President Donald Trump, according to an Emerson College poll released Thursday.

The poll, which surveyed 1,000 registered voters in Michigan on Oct. 30-Nov. 4, shows Biden with a 2-point lead (43%-41%) over Trump in a state he won by 2.8 percentage points over the Republican in 2020. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.

The poll also surveyed 708 likely voters in Michigan, who also broke for Biden by 2 percentage points (45%-43%).

Emerson released swing-state polling in five other states — Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — all that broke for Biden in 2020 and were contested by Trump before Jan. 6, 2021. And in all of those, Trump has a lead over Biden, except in Wisconsin among likely voters, where the candidates are tied.

The poll stands in contrast to the RealClearPolitics average polling for Michigan, which shows Trump with a 1-point lead (44.2%-43.2%). It also stands in contrast to the recent Siena College/New York Times poll that showed Trump with a 5-point lead (48%-43%) in the state.

Overall, among the six battleground states, the Emerson poll showed Trump with a 45%-41% lead over Biden among registered voters, with 14% undecided. Among likely voters, Trump leads 47%-44%, with 9% undecided.