Emerson Poll: Trump Leads Biden by 4 Points in Pennsylvania

A new poll in Pennsylvania, which President Joe Biden claims as his home, is showing former President Donald Trump with a 4-point lead — outside the margin of error.

Emerson College Polling results released Thursday showed Trump leading 49% to 45% among likely voters, with just 6% undecided.

Emerson also released swing-state polling in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and Wisconsin, and Michigan — all states that broke for Biden in 2020 and were contested by Trump before Jan. 6, 2021.

Pennsylvania brings 19 Electoral College votes in the 2024 presidential election; the total of 538 nationwide requires a majority of 270 to win.

The Emerson results align with a recent Siena College/The New York Times poll that showed the same margin breaking for Trump, but that poll was within the margin of error of 4.4 percentage points.

Trump now leads the RealClearPolitics polling average in the state after those two poll results this week.

Combined in those above six key battleground states, Trump leads Biden by 4 points (45%-41%) among registered voters, with 14% of voters undecided. Among likely voters, Trump leads Biden by 3 points (47%-44%), with 9% of voters undecided.

“Biden is generally underperforming his 2020 support with voters under 30, whereas Trump has locked in his support with middle-aged voters,” Emerson College Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball said.

“Likely voters under 30 break for Biden over Trump by 8 points across these six state polls, 47%-39%, with 14% undecided. Trump’s base of support lies with the 50-64 year old general election voters, who support him over Biden by a 13-point margin, 52%-39%, while likely voters over 65 are evenly split between the two candidates: 46%-46%.”

Emerson College polled 1,000 registered voters and 816 likely voters in Pennsylvania from Oct. 30 to Nov. 4, and the results have a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.