Emerson Poll: Trump Maintains Support Following Verdict

A recent survey conducted by Emerson College Polling reveals that former President Donald Trump’s overall support across the nation has maintained its consistency even after his conviction for felonies in New York City. However, his lead over President Joe Biden has decreased by two points, resulting in a statistical tie between the two in the race for the White House.

Released on Thursday, the poll shows Trump’s support remaining at 46%, the same percentage as it has been since April, while Biden stands at 45%. In the previous poll, Trump held a 46% to 43% lead over Biden.

Of the total voters surveyed, 9% remain undecided. Among those who are undecided, an equal number are split between supporting Biden and Trump, with 50% for each candidate.

The survey was conducted on June 4-5 and included 1,000 registered voters, with a credibility interval similar to a margin of error set at 3 percentage points.

In terms of the impact of Trump’s criminal convictions on voter preferences for November, 40% stated that it would not influence their decision. However, 33% indicated that the convictions make them less likely to support Trump, while 27% said the verdict increases the likelihood of them choosing Trump.

According to Spencer Kimball, the executive director of Emerson College Polling, “A majority of Democrats are less likely to support Trump (51%), whereas a majority of Republicans (55%) are more likely to support him. Independents are divided, with 41% stating no impact, 38% less likely to vote for Trump, and 21% more likely.”

Regarding Trump’s sentence post-conviction, 40% of voters believe he should be sent to prison, while 25% suggest a fine and 15% recommend probation. Party-wise, 67% of Democrats support prison time, 46% of Republicans favor a fine, and 42% of Independents lean towards prison time.

Third-party candidates affected the poll results, with Trump’s support dropping to 44% and Biden’s falling to 38% when these candidates were included.

Other key findings from the poll indicate that Biden maintains a low job approval rating of 37%, with a disapproval rating of 53%. Majority of voters (55%) disapprove of Biden’s handling of the nation’s immigration policy.

When asked about the importance of various issues, 42% of voters prioritize the economy, while 15% focus on immigration, 12% on threats to democracy, 7% on housing affordability, 6% on crime, and 5% each on abortion access and healthcare. Education is highlighted by 4% of voters.

Regarding the Hunter Biden gun trial, 64% of voters stated that it would not impact their vote, while 12% indicated the trial makes them more likely to support the president and 24% said it decreases their likelihood to vote for him.