Emerson Poll: Trump’s Lead Over Haley Widens to 29 Points in S.C.

Former President Donald Trump has a 29-point lead in South Carolina’s Republican primary over Nikki Haley, the state’s former governor, a new survey shows.

In the Emerson College Polling survey, Trump leads Haley 54% to 25%, while the rest of the field is in single digits: 7% for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, 5% for former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, and 3% for Vivek Ramaswamy.  

“A key question arising from this poll is whether Haley can mobilize ample support in her home state before the primary, in the case the race becomes more competitive after New Hampshire,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.

South Carolina Republicans have set Feb. 24 as the date of their 2024 presidential primary. 

The new poll showed:

• Haley has an edge among independents 37% to 33%, but trails among those who affiliate as Republicans 62% to 21%.
• Among voters who are “very likely” to vote, Trump leads Haley 57% to 24%, but among “somewhat likely” voters, it’s 34% for Trump and 31% for Haley.
• Haley holds the same 25% level of support from men and women voters.
• Trump leads Haley among all age groups.
• Haley bests Trump among voters with postgraduate degrees, 40% to 39%, respectively.

According to polling Senior Director Matt Taglia, Haley has the backing of 44% of Christie voters as their second choice, “but others split their vote between the top candidates.”

“With limited undecided voters, a path for Haley in South Carolina could depend on converting some of these first and second choices,” Taglia said.

Among Democrats, 69% of primary voters plan to back President Joe Biden, 5% back Dean Phillips, 3% support Marianne Williamson, and 22% are on the sidelines.

The survey also found the economy is the “most important issue” facing South Carolina, at 40%, followed by immigration, at 14%, education and “threats to democracy” at 9%, healthcare at 8%, crime at 6%, and both housing affordability and abortion access at 5%. 

The breakdown of priorities:

• 49% of GOP voters view the economy as the top issue, followed by immigration at 19%.
• 28% of Democrats say the economy is the most important issue followed by healthcare, 16%, threats to democracy 12%, and abortion access 9%. 
• 37% of independents say the economy is the top issue, followed by threats to democracy at 12%, and immigration at 10%.

The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.