Experts Suggest Ticket-Splitting Could Benefit Democratic Senate Candidates Over Trump

Recent polls in key battleground states have shown that Senate Democrats are performing better than President Joe Biden, sparking speculation that there could be a significant level of ticket-splitting in the upcoming November elections.

According to The Hill, ticket-splitting, where voters choose different parties on the same ballot, has become increasingly rare as political polarization has intensified.

The strong polling numbers for Democrat Senate candidates in states like Montana, Ohio, and Pennsylvania suggest that some voters may opt to support them while voting for former President Donald Trump or another candidate, rather than Biden.

“This is more split-ticket voting than we would traditionally see, but there’s also a higher undecided factor than we would normally see – I think that plays into it,” said Matt Taglia, senior director of Emerson College Polling.

Historically, split-ticket voting has declined over the years. In 1972, for example, even though GOP President Richard Nixon won in a landslide, 190 House districts elected Democrat representatives, as reported by the Pew Research Center.

While polls have consistently shown Biden trailing Trump in key battleground states, Democrat Senate candidates have maintained a polling advantage, especially in states crucial for determining Senate control, such as Arizona, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Despite the disparity between presidential and Senate races in the polls, analysts predict that there could be higher levels of split-ticket voting in the upcoming election. Factors such as name recognition, fundraising success, and independent candidates in the race are believed to contribute to this trend.

Overall, the current dynamics of the election race are unique and could result in more split-ticket voting than seen in previous elections, according to experts cited by The Hill.