FAU Poll Shows Trump Ahead of Biden by 1 Point in 3 Crucial States

Republican presumptive nominee Donald Trump is leading President Joe Biden by 1 point head-to-head among voters in three battleground states, as per a new FAU PolCom Lab/Mainstreet Research poll released on Tuesday.

However, when Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is added to the mix, the lead shifts in Biden’s favor in the overall results, according to the survey.

Trump currently leads Biden by 44% to 43% among all voters and likely voters head-to-head across the three states, as per the survey. Breaking it down by state, Trump wins one state outright while the other two are split:

• Pennsylvania: Trump leads Biden by 2 points among all voters (45% to 43%) and likely voters (47% to 45%);
• Wisconsin: Biden leads Trump 40% to 38% among all voters, but Trump leads among likely voters, 41% to 40%;
• Michigan: Both are tied at 45% each among all voters, but Biden leads among likely voters, 47% to 46%.

Biden had won all three states in 2020 by narrow margins.

“Neither side currently has a significant advantage in any of the three states,” stated Dukhong Kim, associate professor of political science at FAU.

However, the addition of Kennedy in the hypothetical poll changes the results in favor of Biden, especially in one state.

In Wisconsin, Biden opens a 7-point lead over Trump among all voters, 38% to 31%, with RFK Jr. earning 13%, according to the survey. Among likely voters, Biden’s lead decreases to 5 points in his favor, 40% to 35%, with RFK Jr. at 12%.

In Pennsylvania, Biden leads Trump 41% to 39% among all voters, with RFK Jr. at 8%. Biden’s lead narrows to 1 point (43% to 42%) among likely voters, with RFK Jr. polling at 7%, as per the survey.

In Michigan, Biden leads Trump 41% to 39% among all voters, with RFK Jr. at 11%. Among likely voters, Biden leads 44% to 43% with RFK Jr. getting 8%, according to the survey.

With RFK Jr. factored in across all three states, Biden leads Trump by 40% to 38% among all voters and 42% to 41% among likely voters.

At present, RFK Jr. is confirmed qualified only for Michigan, one of the surveyed states. He has until Aug. 2 to submit the required signatures for Pennsylvania and until Aug. 7 for Wisconsin.

FAU PolCom Lab/Mainstreet Research polled 2,068 adults in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin from May 30-31. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 2.2 points.