Forecast Model Predicts Trump and GOP Ahead in Election Races

According to a forecast model released more than five months ahead of the election, former President Donald Trump is favored to return to the White House. The Decision Desk HQ/The Hill model also predicts that Republicans have the edge in winning control of the House and the Senate.

Scott Tranter, Director for Data Science at Decision Desk HQ, described the early forecast as a test that doesn’t count, emphasizing that no one is voting at present. The model gives Trump a 58% chance of winning the presidency, with President Joe Biden having a 42% chance of winning reelection. Trump leads in most key swing states that are crucial for determining the election outcome.

Another poll from Civiqs showed that Biden’s national approval rating is lower than his approval in swing states like Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. The model projects Trump winning 282 electoral votes compared to Biden’s 256, with 270 needed to secure the presidency.

The GOP is predicted to have an 80% chance of winning the U.S. Senate and a 64% chance of maintaining its House majority. The model indicates that Democrat Senate candidates are more likely to win in all but one of the Senate battlegrounds. Republican Tim Sheehy in Montana has a 78% chance of defeating incumbent Democrat Sen. Jon Tester.

The model is based on various data points such as voter registration numbers, demographics, past election results, fundraising totals, and polling averages. Although past predictions haven’t always come true, Democrat strategist Antjuan Seawright warns against peaking too soon in politics.