Gallup Poll Shows Decline in Support for Democrats Among Black and Hispanic Voters

A new Gallup survey revealed that the Democratic Party is losing some support among Black and Hispanic voters and young people, but is gaining support from of college-educated people and women.

Republicans, meanwhile, are gaining with white voters and those with no college education.

The Democratic Party’s traditional lead over Republicans with Black and Hispanic adults in the U.S. has decreased by nearly 20 percentage points in the past three years, according to a new survey from Gallup.

Two-thirds of Black adults surveyed by Gallup identify as or lean Democrat; 19% identify as or lean Republican.

Most of the Democrats’ decline in Black support has been recent.

In 2020, 77% of Black adults favored Democrats and 11% favored Republicans, so the 2023 findings represent an 11-point decrease in Democrat affiliation since 2020 and an eight-point increase in Republican affiliation.

Gallup found the historically low support for Democrats was also true among Hispanic adults. Those who identify as or lean Democratic saw only a 12-point advantage in 2023 — down from 28% in 2020 — over those who lean or identify as Republican.

A New York Times article suggests the Democratic Party is losing ground with non-white voters because it is seen as too progressive by some Blacks and Hispanics.

There are many non-white Democrats who self-identify as moderate or even conservative, holding conservative views on issues like opposition to same-sex marriage and abortion, The Times writes.

Then, former President Donald Trump’s “views on crime and immigration have considerable appeal to some Black and Hispanic voters,” the newspaper says. “Mr. Trump’s economic appeal may also be newly salient with continuing perceptions that the economy hasn’t recovered.”

Republicans have a steady lead with white adults, with 15% to 17% more leaning or identifying as Republican than Democrat, Gallup found.

Democrats have a strong lead with college-educated voters and women.

The latest Gallup party ID results are based on telephone interviews from combined surveys conducted in 2023, with an aggregate random sample of 12,145 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia.

For results based on the total sample of national adults, the margin of sampling error is plus-1 percentage point at the 95% confidence level. The margins of error for all reported subgroups are higher, ranging between plus-2 and plus-4 percentage points. All reported margins of sampling error include computed design effects for weighting.