HarrisX poll shows Trump leading Biden by 6 points in crowded 2024 race

Despite some speculation that former Democrat presidential primary candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. would disrupt the race in 2024, a new poll has found that former President Donald Trump widens his lead when third-party candidates are considered.

Trump (45%) leads 2 points in a head-to-head hypothetical matchup with President Joe Biden (43%) in the latest The Messenger/HarrisX poll released Thursday, but that lead is within the margin of error and there were 12% undecided.

When independent RFK Jr. and the Green Party’s Cornel West are added to the polling field and voters were forced to pick, Trump’s lead expands to 6 points (44%-38%) over Biden and the field. RFK Jr. pulled 14% support, while West pulled just 4%.

In the four-way poll test, independent voters chose RFK Jr. (34%) over Biden (27%) and Trump (25%). In the two-way poll test, Trump (38%) topped Biden (37%) among independents, while 25% were undecided.

Notably, two-thirds of voters did not want the sitting president to run for reelection, including 41% of his own Democratic Party voters.

A shrinking Republican primary field remains Trump’s race to win, as he leads by 50 points:

1. Trump 62%
2. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis 12%
3. Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley 7%
4. Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy 6%

Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Sen. Tim Scott, S.C., former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum each pulled just 1% support, while relative unknowns Corey Stapleton and Ryan Binkley drew zero support. There were 1% choosing “someone else,” and 7% undecided.

Notably, former Vice President Mike Pence’s withdrawal appears to have given Haley a boost, albeit slightly. Haley picked up 2 points from Pence who had 4% support in the previous Messenger/Harris poll.

“As the Republican field consolidates, we see Nikki Haley showing momentum and picking up voters while DeSantis and Ramaswamy are flat,” according to HarrisX pollster and CEO Dritan Nesho.

The Messenger/HarrisX polled 2,021 registered voters, including 753 registered Republicans from Oct. 30-Nov. 1. The margin of error of the full sample is plus or minus 2.2 percentage points.