Iowa Caucuses Turnout at Risk Due to Winter Storm

A strong blizzard has affected campaign plans in Iowa ahead of Monday’s caucuses, causing disruptions and cancellations. The inclement weather conditions have led some candidates to shift to alternative strategies, according to a report from The Hill.

Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley’s campaign has adapted by organizing three telephone town halls in Webster, Plymouth, and Pottawattamie counties.

Similarly, the pro-DeSantis super PAC, Never Back Down, postponed events in Clear Lake and Marshalltown, where Fla. Gov. Ron DeSantis was scheduled to speak to the audience.

The blizzard, along with forecasted low temperatures on caucus night, raises concerns about its impact on voter turnout and results. Cities like Des Moines, Johnston, and Fairfield have reported significant snowfall, with road conditions being deemed “impassable” in certain areas by the Iowa Department of Transportation.

Regardless of the weather challenges, the DeSantis campaign proceeded with two in-person events. Andrew Romeo, DeSantis campaign spokesperson, posted on X, “The snow is not going to slow down the hardest-working candidate and team in Iowa.”

Since the blizzard struck just days before the caucuses, some strategists anticipate that the timing might benefit overall turnout, with expectations of clearer roads by Monday night. However, the extremely cold temperatures forecasted for caucus night still present an additional hurdle for voters.

Campaigns expressed readiness for extreme temperatures, relying on the preparedness of their organizations and the resilience of Iowans accustomed to harsh winter conditions. Pro-Haley Stand for America PAC spokesperson Preya Samsundar highlighted the Midwestern resilience, emphasizing the familiarity of Iowans with January’s cold weather.

Campaigns acknowledged the unique challenges presented by temperatures as low as minus 20 degrees, emphasizing the advantage of candidates who have extensively campaigned across the state. DeSantis’ team sees this as a significant advantage, ensuring that voters attending caucuses in such conditions have had the chance to meet the candidate.

While some caucusgoers express readiness to brave the cold, concerns arise about potential lower turnout, particularly among elderly voters who may find the extreme conditions prohibitive. The impact on elderly voters, a traditionally dependable bloc, could be consequential for the caucuses.

As Iowa residents evaluate the weather’s potential impact on turnout, differing opinions emerge. Some, like Iowa native John Brown, remain unfazed, stating, “I’m used to the cold weather.”

Strategists believe that higher turnout would be ideal for candidates like former President Donald Trump. Jimmy Centers, an Iowa-based GOP strategist, suggested that Trump’s team need not be overly concerned unless turnout drops significantly “below 150,000.”