Majority of Americans Predict Trump Will Win, Economist/YouGov Poll Finds

A recent survey conducted by the Economist and YouGov reveals a prevailing sentiment among Americans regarding the potential outcome of the 2024 presidential election.

Presenting a hypothetical matchup between former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden, the poll asked participants not whom they would support but who they believed would emerge victorious in such an election scenario.

The findings indicate a divided perception among respondents, with both Trump and Biden receiving 44% support in a direct contest. However, when it comes to expectations of victory, 45% of those surveyed predict Trump would win, surpassing the 34% who foresee a Biden triumph. The poll also notes 21% remain undecided on the matter.

The sentiment leans more distinctly toward Trump among registered voters, with 44% betting on his victory against 37% vying for Biden.

The confidence gap widened further along party lines with 84% of Republicans expressing confidence in Trump’s success, compared to the 73% of Democrats who believe in Biden’s chances.

Additionally, independents showed a preference for Trump in terms of both direct support and perceived likelihood of his winning: 45%. The figure marks a stark contrast to the 21% siding with Biden, illustrating a 24-point disparity.

The poll was conducted Feb. 11-13 and surveyed 1,671 adults. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.