Morning Consult Poll: Trump Maintains Lead Despite Conviction

Following his conviction on 34 felony charges in New York City last week, former President Donald Trump appears to have an edge over President Joe Biden in the race for the White House, according to a recent poll.

The poll, conducted by Morning Consult from May 31 to June 2 with 10,404 registered voters, showed Trump leading Biden by 44% to 43%.

While Biden had the most support from Democrat voters since April, at 88%, he still lags behind Trump in terms of support from 2020 supporters, with Trump garnering 90% of Republican backers compared to Biden’s 84% of Democrat supporters.

In another Morning Consult survey on May 31, Biden was ahead of Trump by one point, with 45% to 44% among 2,200 registered voters.

The trial was a significant news event for voters, with 56% reporting they had heard a lot about it, making it the most salient out of 250 news stories tested by Morning Consult.

Despite Trump’s lead in the poll, Biden’s net favorability ratings have been higher for the fifth consecutive week, marking the longest stretch since April 2023 when Trump was indicted in New York.

While Trump’s “net buzz” rating is at an all-time low, according to Newsweek, there has been little change in voter choice among Black and Hispanic voters and those under 35 since 2020.

A majority of voters, 54%, approved of the conviction of Trump in the trial, according to the Morning Consult poll conducted one day after the verdict.