New Rasmussen Poll Shows 38% Favor Third Party in Potential Trump-Biden Rerun

More than a third of voters said they would vote for a third-party candidate if the 2024 presidential race choices are a rerun of 2020 contenders Joe Biden and Donald Trump, a new survey shows.

The latest Rasmussen Reports survey found that 38% said they would vote for a third party contender if the race turns into a three-way contest.

The survey found 43% of likely voters would cast their ballot to reelect Biden, 42% would vote for former President Trump and 12% said they’d vote for some other candidate.

But in the event of a Biden-Trump rematch, if there were a strong third-party presidential candidate in 2024, 38% said it’s likely they’d vote for that contender, and 56% said they’re unlikely to vote for a third-party choice.

In June, Rasmussen Reports found Trump led 45% to 39% over Biden.

In other findings, the survey found:

— Among voters who favor Biden in a rematch with Trump, 36% would be at least somewhat likely to vote for a strong third-party candidate, as would 28% of those who favor Trump.

— 42% of Democrats, 35% of Republicans and 37% of voters not affiliated with either major party are at least somewhat likely to vote for a third-party candidate if the election is a Biden-Trump rematch.

— In a rematch, Biden would get 80% of Democrat voters, 15% of Republicans and 31% of independent voters. Trump would get 68% of Republican voters, 14% of Democrats, and 47% of independents.

— In a rematch, men favor Trump 48% to 41%, women favor Biden 46% to 39% — with women voters also more likely to consider voting for a third-party candidate.

— Voters 65 and up favor Trump over Biden 50% to 41%, those under 40 favor Biden over Trump 44% to 39%. The under-40 crowd also is more open to voting for a strong third-party candidate if there’s a Biden-Trump rematch.

— Biden is favored by 44% of white voters, 49% of black voters and 36% of other minorities. Trump is supported by 42% of white voters, 39% of black voters and 45% of other minorities. Black voters are most likely to consider voting for a strong third-party candidate in a 2024 Biden-Trump rematch.

The survey of 979 likely voters conducted Sept. 11-13 has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.