Robert Gates: Russia’s Progress Signals the End of a Deadlock

Former U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates declared on Wednesday that Russia had broken the stalemate in the Ukraine conflict with the successful capture of the front-line city of Avdiivka, reported The Hill.

In an interview with The Washington Post’s David Ignatius, Gates emphasized the shift in momentum, stating, “It’s no longer a stalemate. The Russians have regained momentum.” He highlighted reports indicating a Russian offensive across the 600-mile front.

According to Gates, despite significant losses, Russia’s capture of Avdiivka represents a turning point. He attributed Ukraine’s struggles to artillery shortages resulting from reduced U.S. support. “The Russians are feeling that the tides have turned,” Gates remarked, noting the significant disparity in artillery firepower favoring Russia.

“They have more and more supplies coming in — I’ve read that for every artillery shell fired by Ukrainian forces, the Russians fire 10,” he added.

Russian forces announced their control over Avdiivka, including its vital coke plant, marking a notable victory — the first in months and the most significant since seizing nearby Bakhmut last spring. President Biden attributed Ukraine’s battlefield setbacks to House Republicans, citing their refusal to approve additional aid without substantial immigration reform.

While European NATO allies have increased support for Ukraine, immediate weapon delivery remains challenging. Due to production timelines, Gates estimated that NATO assistance would not reach the battlefield until 2025. With U.S. support currently paused, Gates emphasized its critical role as Ukraine’s primary military lifeline.

“The only real military lifeline comes from the United States. And as we all know, that is, shall we say, on pause right now,” he said. 

Ukrainian aid faces delays in Congress, with Speaker Mike Johnson navigating between moderates’ and far-right members’ opposing stances. Gates criticized Congress for sluggish approval of vital battlefield capabilities, such as missile systems enabling strikes against Russian-occupied Crimea. He lamented the delayed arrival of weapons, hindering Ukraine’s defense capabilities.

Gates stressed that the timing of the proposed $60 billion aid package, part of a bipartisan Senate initiative, holds crucial significance for Ukraine’s survival against a resurgent Russian offensive in 2024. The package aims to bolster Ukraine’s air defense capabilities and establish a robust defensive barrier to prevent further territorial losses.

Passing the aid package would send a clear message to Russia, according to Gates, signaling their inability to achieve their objectives. He deemed it a necessary step towards a ceasefire, the reconstruction of Ukraine, and its eventual integration into NATO.