Survey: Biden and Trump are Neck and Neck in Virginia

Could Virginia be a 2024 swing state?

A new poll by Roanoke College shows President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump tied in Virginia with each polling at 42%. When third party candidates are factored in, Biden leads Trump 40% to 38%.

Only 2% of voters say they are undecided. Third party candidates could play a spoiler role, with 14% of voters saying they would vote for someone other than Biden or Trump. Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. polls at 8% in Virginia.

“These results suggest that Virginia could be ‘in play’ in November,” said Dr. Harry Wilson, senior political analyst for IPOR and a professor emeritus at Roanoke College.

The poll found 64% of likely voters are certain of their vote choice while 28% are somewhat certain. One in five voters are either not too enthusiastic or not at all enthusiastic about voting. The economy was the most important issue, being cited by 44% of respondents. Immigration (14%) and abortion (13%) were chosen more frequently than foreign affairs (8%) and crime (5%).

In good news for Trump, voters viewed the Trump years as mostly good for the country (44% mostly good; 33% mostly bad) while they see the Biden years more negatively (25% mostly good, 47% mostly bad). Republicans were more enthusiastic about the Trump years (87%) while only 50% of Democrats think of Biden’s years as mostly good.

Virginia has trended blue in recent years, with Biden winning The Old Dominion State by 10 points in 2020 and Democrats winning the state in every presidential election since 2008.

The Institute for Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College surveyed 711 likely Virginia voters May 12-21, and the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.24 percentage points.