The GOP’s Chance for Senate Majority is Growing Stronger

The prospect for a Republican Senate majority this year may be improving as the GOP eyes wins in Maryland and Montana, and a smoother path to flipping West Virginia.

“This is a good map for Republicans,” Dave Peterson, a political science professor at Iowa State University, told The Hill. “There’s a long way to go, and a lot of other primaries out there that could hurt them. But I think this is a good year for them.”

Senate Democrats — with a 51-49 —have to defend 23 seats this cycle, including red states including Montana, West Virginia and Ohio.

In deep-blue Maryland, the GOP has recruited the popular former Gov. Larry Hogan to flip the seat, and in Montana, Republicans persuaded Rep. Matt Rosendale to drop out of the GOP primary to make way for the nomination for businessman Tim Sheehy — preferred by Sen. Steve Daines, R-Mont., the chair of the Senate Republican campaign team, The Hill reported.

And the decision of Sen. Joe Minchin, D-W.Va., to not seek another term all but secures the seat for the GOP, the outlet reported.

“One reason that it’s still their chamber to lose is because they’ve been able to expand the map, and Democrats are unable to expand the map, they have to protect the map,” David McCuan, a political science professor at Sonoma State University, told The Hill.

“So fundamentally, at base, Democrats are in a protect mode, and Republicans are in an expansive mode. Republicans remain on offense.”

GOP strategist Ford O’Connell agreed Republicans have a “really good map” that they “have to take advantage of.”

With GOP West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice running for Manchin’s seat, Republicans feel like they already have 50 seats. If they can take out Montana’s Democrat Sen. Jon Tester or Sen. Ohio’s Democrat Sen. Sherrod Brown, they’d be at 51, The Hill noted.

Democrats are defending another four Senate races — in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — while Republicans are only defending two seats: Sen. Rick Scott in Florida and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz.

“You already have a pretty clear path to 50. What you’re focused on now is adding additional seats for when it comes time to move legislation through the Senate,” one unnamed GOP operative told The Hill.

“Senate Republicans have to still run through the tape and add at least one more seat to guarantee themselves a majority regardless of the presidential outcome, and some of the recent developments bolster their hopes at doing just that,” he added.