Trump Emerges Victorious in GOP Primary According to McLaughlin Poll, Demonstrates Strong Standing Against Biden

Our new poll shows without any doubt Donald Trump is crushing the Republican primary field, and he is even beating his political persecutor Joe Biden.

Our recent McLaughlin poll was completed right before the second Republican debate, on Sept. 22-26, and involved 1,000 likely voters — including GOP and independent voters, and had a plus or minus 3.1% margin of error at the 95% confidence interval.

Among Republican voters, former President Trump led with 54%, crushing the GOP field in a multi-candidate ballot.

He leads his closest competitor, Gov. Ron DeSantis, by a huge 42 points. DeSantis, after months of major media attention and spending  tens of millions of donors’ dollars, has actually collapsed. Our poll shows the Florida governor receiving a paltry 12% — down significantly from the 31% he had back in January.

The rest of the field is even weaker: neophyte Vivek Ramaswamy is stuck at 10%; Nikki Haley, 6%; Mike Pence, 5%; Tim Scott, 2%; Chris Christie, 2%; Doug Burgum, 1%; Asa Hutchinson, 1%; Perry Johnson, 1%; Will Hurd, 1%; and Larry Elder, 0%.

Now that Pence, Johnson, Hurd, and Elder have withdrawn from the race, it is unclear where their supporters will go. 

But they are few in number and will not move the needle for any Trump competitor.

It seems the Republican establishment has incorrectly believed if they could get candidates to drop out, they could unite behind one person in an effort to stop Trump. But the poll shows that strategy is doomed to fail.

We asked voters who they would pick in a one-on-one race between former President Trump and DeSantis. Trump’s lead is overwhelming, at 71% to 28%.

DeSantis’ fall is largely linked to a growing negative perception of him. In January, among all voters, DeSantis had a 40% favorable rating, 39% unfavorable. Now he’s seen a net decline of 13 points — with a 36% favorable rating today, and a strong 48% unfavorable rating.

The bottom line: As voters get to know DeSantis, they just don’t like him.

In a general election contest, among all voters — and in spite of four indictments in five months — former President Trump defeats President Joe Biden 47% to 43%, with 10% undecided. 

Trump continues to show strong support among Republicans, at 87% to 10%. And he even takes 12% of Democrats from Biden, as the sitting president draws only 79% his party’s support.

Trump wins independents 41% to 39%. He also exceeds his 2020 share of the minority vote, receiving 13% among African Americans and a surprising 40% among Hispanics.

It’s important to note that our poll is modeled after the 2020 turnout, with 4 points more 2020 Biden voters than Trump voters.

Thus, with our poll showing Trump’s current 4-point lead over Biden, two things are clear: First, Biden voters from 2020 are flipping to Trump in 2024. And second, there are new 2024 Trump voters who voted for third parties or did not vote in 2020.

President Biden’s low approval rating, 42%, and high job disapproval, 54%, could be fueling President Trump’s advantage in the polls.

The percentage of undecided voters does not bode well for Biden, either, because their job rating for Biden is net negative 32% — with 24% approving of his job performance and 56% disapproving. These disaffected undecideds could be Trump voters next year.

Would replacing Joe Biden with Kamala Harris save Democratic chances to win the White House in 2024? No. In such a scenario, President Trump leads Kamala Harris 48% to 41%.

And like Biden, Kamala Harris is not liked by most Americans, with a 38% favorable rating and 53% unfavorable.

And if third party candidates are added to the mix, Trump continues to lead with an intense base of voter support.

Here’s how new candidates running may affect the results: Trump, 43%; Biden, 38%; Green Party Cornel West, 6%; and 13% undecided.

And here’s another scenario: Trump, 40%; Biden, 36%; No Labels Joe Manchin, 6%; Cornel West, 4%; and 14% undecided.

As national Republican leaders like Newt Gingrich and Scott Walker have said, the primary is over. Trump has won the GOP field.

Gingrich and others have called for the RNC to cancel future GOP debates to unify behind Trump to prepare early for 2024. We think that would be a smart move.

It is too early to say whether Trump has won the 2024 election, but his prospects are looking very strong.