Trump Holds Lead in Five Crucial Swing States According to NY Times Poll

Recent polls conducted by The New York Times, Siena College, and The Philadelphia Inquirer show former President Donald Trump leading President Joe Biden in five critical battleground states that could have a significant impact on this year’s presidential election.

Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee for the upcoming general election, seems poised to challenge Biden, who is seeking reelection.

According to the latest Times/Siena/Inquirer polls, Trump holds the lead in the swing states of Arizona (49%-42%), Georgia (49%-39%), Michigan (49%-42%), Nevada (50%-38%), and Pennsylvania (47%-44%) among registered voters. Biden is narrowly ahead in Wisconsin with a 47%-45% lead.

Biden had won all six of these states in the 2020 election. Among likely voters, the race is closer, with Biden slightly ahead in Michigan.

If Biden wins in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin this year, it would be sufficient for his reelection, assuming he retains the other states he won in 2016.

The survey results remained consistent in hypothetical matchups that included independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and other minor-party candidates, with RFK Jr. drawing about 10% of the vote in the six states.

Key factors indicated in the survey results were the economy and discontent over Israel’s conflict with Hamas in Gaza. More than half of voters believe the economy is in poor shape, and dissatisfaction with Biden’s ability to improve the nation’s fortunes has affected his support among various demographics.

Despite winning over 60% of young, Black, and Hispanic voters in 2020, Biden’s standing among these groups has weakened, with his support now roughly equal to Trump’s in the polls.

Notably, Trump has gained support from over 20% of Black voters, which would be the highest level of Black support for a GOP presidential candidate since 1964.

The survey also revealed that nearly 70% of voters believe major changes are needed in the country’s political and economic systems.

The polls conducted by The New York Times/Siena College/Philadelphia Inquirer and Times/Siena College in various states were conducted between April 28 and May 9 among 4,097 registered voters. The margin of error for registered voters is plus or minus 1.8 percentage points, while for the likely electorate, it is plus or minus 1.9 percentage points.

The margin of error for each state poll varies, with Pennsylvania at plus or minus 3.6, Arizona at plus or minus 4.2, and Michigan, Nevada, Wisconsin, and Georgia at plus or minus 4.5 to 4.6 percentage points.