Trump Leads in Emerson Poll, Outperforms Haley in Hypothetical Matchup Against Biden

Former President Donald Trump has widened his lead over President Joe Biden in the latest Emerson College Polling released Wednesday, and the results seem to defy the narrative that former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley is better positioned to defeat the incumbent.

Trump has flipped the race in a year, now leading Biden by a four-point margin, 47%-43%.

“Last November, Biden led Trump by four points, whereas this November, he trails Trump by four,” Emerson College Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball wrote in a statement.

“Several key groups have shifted in the past year: Biden led at this time last year among women by seven points, which has reduced to a point this year.”

Trump’s newfound strength among women voters is noteworthy as Haley has surged to second place in GOP primary polling and some poll results have fed a narrative that she would be a better GOP candidate to face Biden in the 2024 general election.

But the Emerson College Polling results say don’t support that view. Haley is in a dead-heat race with Biden (38%-38%) in a hypothetical matchup between the GOP also-ran and the incumbent president. That is a telling mark against Biden, whose approval ratings are sinking amid the Israel-Hamas war, according to Kimball.

“The president’s disapproval has stayed the same this month, while his approval has dropped four points,” Kimball said. “The president’s approval is the lowest it has been this calendar year, but similar to what it was this time last year when his approval was at 39%.”

While there is a narrative that third-party candidates might help reelect Biden, Trump’s lead has expanded to 6 points (42%-36%). Notably, Trump loses 5 points to a full field, while Biden drops 7 points from the hypothetical head-to-head poll test.

1. Trump: 42%
2. Biden: 36%
3. Robert F. Kennedy: 7%
4. Cornel West: 1%
5. Jill Stein: 1%

Biden’s weakness also has Republicans up 1 point on Democrats in the poll’s generic congressional ballot, 44%-43%.

One thing that does not remain close is the Republican primary race, dominated by Trump by 55 points with no challenger reaching double digits:

1. Trump: 64% (up 5 points since last month)
2. Haley: 9%
3. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis: 8%
4. Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy: 5%
5. Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie: 3%

A further 10% remained undecided.

Emerson College Polling’ national survey sampled 1,475 registered voters Nov. 17-20, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.