Trump wins by a narrow margin in NY Times Poll against Biden

Former President Donald Trump holds a slight lead over President Joe Biden in a New York Times/Siena College poll released Tuesday with registered voters saying they favor Trump over Biden by 46% to 44%. 

In addition, the poll shows Biden’s job approval rating has dropped to 37%, down two percentage points from July, reports The New York Times. However, the race flips regarding people who said they are “very certain” to vote, with Biden edging out Trump by 57% to 55%. 

The numbers fell within the poll’s 3.5 percentage point margin of error for registered voters and 3.7 percentage points for the likely electorate. The survey was conducted of 1,016 registered voters in English and Spanish from Dec. 10-14.

While comparing Biden’s approval ratings with Trump’s, Biden netted only 12% of people who said they strongly approve of him, compared to 24% for Trump.

Biden’s overall approval rating came in at 37% favorable and 58% unfavorable. Trump’s overall ratings were 42% favorable and 54% unfavorable.

Further, when it comes to people most likely to vote, Biden’s approval rating came in at 43%, compared to 41% for Trump. 

The poll, meanwhile, showed Biden losing support among young voters between the ages of 18 and 29 years old, which have traditionally been a key Democrat demographic.

Almost 75% of the voters in that age group are saying they do not approve how Biden is handling the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza, and those numbers are reflected in how many say they would vote for Trump versus Biden.

In July, young voters backed Biden by 10 percentage points, but now, the registered voters in that group picked Trump by 49% to 43%. 

Those polled said that economic concerns are the most important issue in the upcoming election, 34% agreeing that the economy is the top issue facing the United States. However, that number has dropped sharply from 45% in October 2022. 

The other key issues include:

• Inflation, 14%.
• Immigration, 10%.
• Democracy or government corruption, 7%.
• Polarization/Division, 7%. 
• Equality, 6%.
• The Biden administration, 5%. 

However, other controversial issues did not play high in the survey for voters, including abortion, listed by fewer than 1% as a priority; election integrity, less than .5%; or COVID, less than 0%. 

The New York Times poll came in with similar numbers to a Monmouth University poll released Monday, where 34% said they approve of Biden’s job performance, with 61% disapproving, marking that poll’s lowest rating since he took office.