A New Chapter in Politics Begins

Donald Trump’s triumph, coupled with Republicans reclaiming the Senate majority and maintaining their grip on the House, made 2024 a challenging year for Democrats.

Indicators suggest it might be even worse: a historic loss that positions Republicans as the dominant force in politics for decades.

Exit polling revealed that, for the first time in a presidential election since 1928, more voters identified as Republican than as Democrat.

This is a development not seen since the era of silent films and when Babe Ruth was smashing home runs in the original Yankee Stadium.

No one alive today has ever participated in a presidential election where this has occurred.

While Republicans have won elections in the past century, they always faced a challenging path.

They needed to persuade those who leaned Democratic to consider a Republican alternative.

This is why candidates like Dwight Eisenhower branded themselves as “modern Republicans” and committed to maintaining the welfare state established by Franklin D. Roosevelt’s New Deal.

This is also why both Bushes presented themselves as “kinder, gentler” candidates open to expanding government.

Even Ronald Reagan ensured his supporters knew that he had voted for FDR four times.

His renowned “there you go again” remark toward President Jimmy Carter was pivotal for his victory, although few remember it was in response to Carter’s claim that Reagan opposed Medicare and would jeopardize the popular program.

Reagan’s remarks asserted his support for the widespread entitlement program, emphasizing he wouldn’t attempt to repeal or drastically alter it.

Each of these leaders recognized the necessity of Democratic votes for success, and securing those votes required compromising on significant policy issues opposed by more ideologically rigid Republicans.

Ignoring this reality could have dire consequences for Republicans.

Newt Gingrich’s landmark victory in 1994 allowed Republicans to gain control of the House for the first time since 1952. Polls suggested the GOP was even with Democrats in partisan identification.

Gingrich had reason to believe he could dismantle the Democrats’ stronghold on power, but he squandered this opportunity with a budget strategy that included cuts to popular programs like Medicare.

President Bill Clinton countered with the assertion that “the era of big government was over,” while promising to safeguard those social programs.

By early 1996, after two failed government shutdowns aimed at breaking Clinton’s resolve, Gingrich faced defeat, with polls indicating that Democrats had regained their traditional appeal.

However, in recent times, the Democrats’ rapid leftward shift has undermined their historical standing.

Alongside President Biden’s lack of competency, only 31% of Americans identified as Democrats this year, a decrease from 37% in 2000.

In contrast, a greater share of voters, 35% in the exit poll, identified as Republicans, while the remaining voters considered themselves independent.

This dynamic allowed Trump to maintain his base while closely engaging independents.

Kamala Harris followed the age-old Democratic strategy of energizing her base, securing 95% of Democrat support and even winning independents by 3 percentage points.

In any other election since the Great Depression, that would have sufficed for victory.

Yet, in a Republican-leaning America, adhering to traditional Democratic strategies is insufficient.

Harris needed to attract Republican voters to succeed, and her ineffective attempt to align with former Rep. Liz Cheney indicates she and her strategists were out of touch.

This outcome presents Trump with a unique opportunity.

If he can extend the GOP’s dominance over the next four years, he may ignite the first significant political realignment since Ronald Reagan nearly equalized the two parties in the early 1980s.

A landscape where Republicans outpace Democrats by 8 to 10 points in partisan identification would mean Republican values and priorities dominate.

Similar to the GOP in the past century, Democrats might only succeed by posing as “me too” candidates, proposing slightly moderated versions of the Republican agenda.

Nevertheless, this is not predetermined: Trump must ensure effective governance.

Should the economy falter, illegal immigration persist, or Trump engage in conflicts with China or Russia, voters may abandon the GOP en masse.

Trump might also stumble by focusing on issues he did not campaign on.

George W. Bush did so in 2005 when he attempted to reform Social Security without a clear mandate.

Barack Obama similarly focused on passing Obamacare in 2009 and 2010, despite running as a centrist.

Trump risks making either or both of these errors. Failure and ineptitude would have consequences.

However, envision what could happen if he succeeds.

Imagine an America in 2028 at peace, with virtually no illegal immigration, the wave of “wokeness” curtailed, and a thriving economy.

This is an America that would reward the party responsible for delivering on those aspirations.

A reward that could place Republicans in a dominant political position not seen since Henry Ford’s Model T was the top car on the market.

Henry Olsen, a political analyst and commentator, is a senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center.