Adams vs. Cuomo: Poll Predicts a Thrilling Mayoral Contest

As the June 24 primaries approach, New York City’s mayoral race is turning into a significant test of one key factor: name recognition.

It’s all about who is known and who isn’t.

According to a recent poll by the Manhattan Institute, there are only two candidates who genuinely possess this recognition: former Governor Andrew Cuomo, who has yet to officially declare his candidacy, and Mayor Eric Adams.

This might seem advantageous for them, but for Adams, it’s a mixed blessing. While he’s recognizable, the sentiment isn’t positive.

A striking 71% of voters hold an unfavorable view of him, while only 25% have a favorable perspective.

Cuomo, although polarizing, remains competitive: 46% have a favorable view of him, compared to 49% who do not.

Additionally, a substantial number of New Yorkers are unhappy with local conditions, with 66% feeling that the city is on the wrong path.

In our evaluation, the most probable outcome is a classic battle between Adams and Cuomo, two politicians who excel in transactional politics rather than adhering to left-wing ideologies.

Even if Adams stumbles during the primary, it won’t be their last contest.

This remains true even though both candidates are Democrats.

We surveyed 618 registered voters in New York City, ensuring that the sample reflects the probable 2025 mayoral electorate based on various demographic factors, and analyzed the potential outcomes of the June primary through a simulated ranked-choice voting process.

Bronx Rep. Ritchie Torres may be eyeing a run for Albany but represents the most intriguing wildcard in this race. His consistent critiques of state progressives — alongside current officials’ shortcomings on issues like crime and housing — have elevated his visibility. Currently, he is recognized by 57% of voters and enjoys favorable ratings from both Democrats (+26%) and Republicans (+28%).

A candidate like Torres could potentially represent the future of a competitive Democratic Party. However, at this juncture, his presence merely underscores the shortcomings within the city’s progressive ranks.

Despite their noteworthy cultural influence, progressive candidates are failing to resonate.

Comptroller Brad Lander and other left-leaning contenders are largely unknown to a significant portion of the electorate, with none garnering more than 16% support in our simulation of the Democratic primary.

According to our polling, if Cuomo opts to run, he will likely win. He tops the Democratic primary’s first round with 30%, well ahead of Adams who trails at 14%.

In our ranked-choice scenario, lesser-known progressives are eliminated early, followed by former comptroller Scott Stringer and then Lander.

Ultimately, in the final stage, Cuomo emerges victorious over Adams by a margin of 53% to 47%. If this happens, it would mark the first instance of a sitting Democratic mayor losing in a primary since David Dinkins unseated Ed Koch in 1989.

However, Adams may have a potential exit strategy: should his standing among Democrats continue to decline, he might — quite remarkably — consider running as a Republican.

New York state’s Wilson-Pakula law allows the city’s five GOP county committees to permit the mayor to be on the Republican ballot.

While this idea may seem implausible, it could become viable if President Trump endorses it, prompting county leaders to comply.

In this case, Adams could frame himself as the “law and order” candidate against Cuomo, with crime and affordability being significant themes in the general election.

For Trump, supporting Adams wouldn’t just involve influencing local politics; it would also serve as a means to test his appeal in predominantly liberal areas, while creating a divide among Democrats.

Adams’ focus on crime already echoes Trump’s 2024 law-and-order strategy, and their mutual resistance to progressive immigration policies could assist Adams in appealing to disenchanted moderates.

Although some Republican leaders might hesitate to support a longtime Democrat, Trump’s inner circle has shown openness to collaborating with Adams, given his participation in several events with key Trump allies.

If Adams navigates his strategy well, he could leverage Trump’s endorsement into a political lifeline — either as a Republican nominee or as an independent candidate with GOP backing.

Will this approach be effective? Perhaps not. A confrontation between Cuomo and Adams would likely favor Cuomo, who our poll indicates leading 50% to 27% in a hypothetical general election.

Nonetheless, Adams would possess something that no Republican contender has had for decades: an actual support base.

Over 30% of New Yorkers citywide backed Trump in the previous November’s election. If Adams consolidates that support and appeals to some independents, we could witness the city’s first genuinely competitive general mayoral election in recent times.

No matter the outcome, one segment will invariably lose: the progressive left.

Whether the city elects Cuomo or Adams, the next mayor will likely reject ideas like defunding the police or free public transit — serving as a reminder that despite their ongoing influence in intra-party disputes, the left’s segment within the Democrats won’t find an advocate at Gracie Mansion.

At this point, the stage is set: Cuomo’s traditional machine politics against Adams’ beleaguered incumbency.

When confronted with a choice between the infamous and the unfamiliar, it appears that New Yorkers might prefer the devils they know.

John Ketcham is a legal policy fellow at the Manhattan Institute, while Jesse Arm serves as the executive director of external affairs and chief of staff.