Europe’s Challenges Demand a Trump Reset — Whether You Agree or Not

Reflect on these contrasts between Europe and America.

On December 20, 2024, a terrorist named Taleb Al-Abdul Mohsen crashed his SUV into a Christmas gathering in Magdeburg, Germany, resulting in six fatalities and injuring 299 individuals.

Just eleven days later, on New Year’s Eve in New Orleans, Shamsud-Din Bahar Jabbar drove his pickup into a celebratory crowd, killing 15 and wounding over 35.

Germany’s fertility rate hovers around 1.4 — roughly the average for a declining European Union. Currently, about 20% of the population is foreign-born, a record high.

In contrast, the U.S. fertility rate has plummeted to 1.6. The foreign-born now account for 15% of the U.S. resident population, marking the highest numbers and percentage in history (50 million).

The German military has significantly diminished, with less than 200,000 soldiers and a scarcity of almost all categories of weapons.

After its failures in Afghanistan, the U.S. military is short about 40,000 recruits and faces shortages in anti-tank weapons, artillery shells, naval vessels, and logistical support.

Germany may finally meet its goal of spending 2% of its GDP on defense, while the U.S. is poised to fall below 3% — the lowest level in over 80 years since the Great Depression.

Last year, Germany’s economy contracted, and this year it is projected to see hardly any growth, partly due to a lack of affordable fossil fuels.

Germans are now paying four times more than the average American for electricity. Meanwhile, the Trump administration has proposed an oil and natural gas boom, with plans to boost production and exports through new pipelines and liquefied natural gas terminals.

In summary, the U.S. appears to be adopting some of Europe’s challenges — yet the next four years could bring renewal that may help both regions stave off decline.

Both are experiencing dwindling and aging populations.

Both are struggling to manage their borders, despite public outcry.

Both are grappling with woke political correctness and experiencing a backlash.

The people in both regions are advocating for smaller government, increased freedom of expression, and reduced focus on wokeness. They demand limited and legal-only immigration and secure borders.

They prefer affordable energy and fewer regulations.

Citizens in both Europe and America want a greater focus on meritocracy, moving away from excessive considerations of race and gender.

Despite the tumultuous landscape of the 21st century, it’s likely that Europe and the United States will continue to share both adversaries and allies.

Both are wary of China’s disproportionate approach to global trade, driven by a mercantilism that would never permit Europe and America to treat China as it treats them.

Both regions are concerned about an expanding Chinese military, both conventional and nuclear.

They do not want Iran to develop nuclear missiles capable of striking their capitals, nor do they wish for Russian President Vladimir Putin to recreate the borders of the former Soviet Union.

As a whole, Europeans tend to favor Democrats, viewing them as fellow quasi-socialists.

However, many Europeans privately believe their security and prosperity improve when conservatives govern the United States.

Historically, Europe has been critical of Donald Trump, both during his presidency and in the election cycles that preceded and followed.

They are apprehensive about his perceived isolationism, lack of diplomatic finesse, insufficient support for NATO, and his tendency toward protectionist tariffs — fearing his negotiating style might be more disruptive than constructive.

However, the landscape of 2025 is distinctly different from that of 2017 or even 2020. A “reset” in perspectives on both fronts is more crucial than ever.

The Biden administration was hardly a model ally for Europe.

It shockingly facilitated the cancellation of a joint Cypriot, Greek, and Israeli EastMed pipeline essential for bringing much-needed natural gas to Europe.

While it spoke emphatically about fortifying NATO, the U.S. military saw its actual budget slashed, further politicizing the Pentagon amidst a recruitment shortfall exceeding 40,000 enrollees.

The disheartening exit from Afghanistan in 2021 not only damaged American credibility but also weakened Western deterrence as a whole.

Biden opposed the establishment of new liquefied natural gas export terminals in the U.S. intended to provide energy-starved Europe with a reliable and trustworthy supplier, helping it move away from reliance on Russia.

In contrast, Trump promises to “drill, drill, drill,” partly to ensure significant income through exporting LNG to Europe facing energy shortages.

Europe may have been displeased when Trump insisted they fulfill their commitments to increase defense spending, yet after the invasion of Ukraine, they now appreciate that some countries have indeed complied.

Europeans likely desire — and require — Trump to reinstate a more formidable U.S. military, rather than a politically correct one.

Both Europe and America are in a state of crisis and require groundbreaking new ideas.

Europe may soon find relief in the departure of Biden and the return of Trump, appreciating having a strong, loyal, and vigorous ally rather than a feeble enabler.

Victor Davis Hanson is a distinguished fellow of the Center for American Greatness.