GOP’s Key Challenge in Attracting Black Voters: The ‘Selma Effect’

In the weeks following November’s election, left-leaning commentators have argued that “whiteness” and racial grievances are to blame for Donald Trump’s return to the White House. This narrative becomes increasingly difficult to sustain considering the president-elect built the most diverse coalition in Republican history, yet partisans persist in promoting it.

Trump’s win does provide crucial insights into the influence of race in the election.

However, neither party seems to address the pivotal question: Why is there such a disparity between the ideological views of black voters and their electoral choices?

According to exit polls, around nine out of ten self-identified liberals cast their votes for Kamala Harris, while an equal percentage of conservatives supported Trump. Among moderates, approximately 60% opted for the Democratic candidate, with 40% voting Republican.

Nearly 80% of African American voters identify as either conservative or moderate. Had their voting behavior mirrored that of other demographic groups, Trump would have captured around 40% of the black vote, but he fell significantly short of this threshold.

His support among black voters remained stagnant at 13%, the same as in 2020, but he lost black conservative voters to Kamala Harris by an 11-point margin—a notable political anomaly.

The Democratic Party’s effective branding as the protector of American civil rights—and the shield against a return to an era when these rights were absent—is a key reason behind the political dissonance among black voters.

This phenomenon can be termed the “Selma effect.”

As a result, the intertwining of racial identity with political allegiance has led many to perceive voting Democrat not only as the “right” option but also as the black option for millions.

For older African Americans, particularly from the Silent and Baby Boomer generations, the Selma effect serves as a powerful reminder of past struggles during times of state-sanctioned segregation.

Despite being the most religious and socially conservative demographic, older black voters are even more inclined to identify as Democrats than their younger peers.

Older black Christians, who may have fervently supported Kamala Harris, could be surprised to learn how many within their own party view them as bigoted for adhering to traditional beliefs about sexual orientation, marriage, and family.

Although black Millennials and Gen Z did not live through segregation, they too feel the Selma effect’s impact.

Throughout the presidential campaign, they faced a barrage of messaging that sought to portray Trump as a racist intent on undermining civil rights and shielding police from accountability for violence against black individuals.

In the aftermath of Harris’ loss, some progressives have gone so far as to claim that black voters fear a second Trump administration might pave the way back to slavery.

This rhetoric is unsurprisingly consistent with leftist narratives.

Democrats often correlate policies they oppose—ranging from restrictions on abortion to school choice—with white supremacy. Recall how President Biden suggested that “Jim Eagle” is threatening to regress black Americans to the era of poll taxes and segregated facilities.

While the notion that voting Democrat symbolizes racial solidarity is seldom stated outright, it is consistently reinforced within the African American community.

Barack Obama publicly rebuked black men who failed to support the Harris-Walz ticket. Additionally, a black men’s summit on BET shortly before the election showcased celebrities who framed voting for the vice president—and supporting abortion—as an act of “protecting” black women.

This mindset casts black Trump supporters not only as politically naïve but as self-loathing race betrayers.

Public support for Republicans for black voters incurs a significant social and cultural cost, unmatched by other demographic groups.

In contrast, white conservatives and liberals do not face scrutiny regarding their “whiteness” based on their electoral choices.

Though the Selma effect plays an important role in shaping black voting behavior, it isn’t the only factor. Many black voters residing in urban areas dominated by Democratic leadership have limited chances to vote for conservative candidates.

The Republican Party must also accept some accountability for policies and rhetoric that perpetuate the belief that black voters are unwelcome.

Yet, when nearly 90% of black voters—from BLM advocates and radical feminists to small business owners and Baptist ministers—align with a single party, the GOP must recognize that it is facing obstacles beyond politics in its outreach.

This should hardly astonish, given that Democrats have persuaded even the staunchest conservative pastor that getting “souls to the polls” is essential to prevent a repeat of Bloody Sunday.

Delano Squires is a research fellow in the Richard and Helen DeVos Center for Life, Religion, and Family at The Heritage Foundation.