Henry Kissinger Predicted the Influence and Promise of Artificial Intelligence

Henry Kissinger passed away a year ago on Nov. 29, leaving behind his essay “How the Enlightenment Ends” from June 2018 where he shared his views on artificial intelligence, surprising many who may not have expected him to delve into this subject. At 95 years old, Kissinger showed interest in AI before it became a popular topic following the release of ChatGPT by OpenAI in late 2022.

As someone who studied Kissinger extensively, it was not unexpected for him to be captivated by AI. In 1957, he gained fame with the publication of “Nuclear Weapons and Foreign Policy,” a book that garnered praise even from Robert Oppenheimer, the Manhattan Project director.

Well aware of how technological advancements like nuclear energy could be used destructively rather than beneficially, Henry Kissinger comprehended the long-term implications of AI.AFP via Getty Images

Despite his reputation as a warmonger, Kissinger’s main goal throughout his life was to prevent World War III by understanding the catastrophic potential of nuclear weapons. He recognized that nuclear fission technology could escalate any future war to unimaginable levels of destruction. His early work estimated the devastation caused by nuclear attacks, emphasizing the need for alternatives to all-out nuclear warfare.

Even in his nineties, Henry Kissinger remained attuned to cutting-edge technologies. Getty Images

While many criticized Kissinger’s concept of limited nuclear war, both superpowers proceeded to develop tactical nuclear weapons as he had foreseen. These weapons still exist today, with Russia even threatening their use in recent times. Unfortunately, current policymakers in Washington appear to have forgotten the nuclear deterrence lessons learned during the Cold War, leading to devastating consequences such as the loss of many lives in Ukraine.

Henry Kissinger never stopped engaging with critical issues. He dedicated a significant portion of his later years to understanding generative artificial intelligence, a significant technological breakthrough. His final book, “Genesis,” co-authored with Craig Mundie and Eric Schmidt, warns against the dangers of an AI arms race, envisioning unprecedented conflicts if societies prioritize unilateral strategic advantages.

Microsoft researcher Craig Mundie, a co-author of Genesis. Bloomberg via Getty Images

Despite the optimism surrounding AI in Silicon Valley, Kissinger’s generation witnessed how technological progress, like nuclear fission, can have both productive and destructive implications. While AI differs significantly from nuclear fission, it is crucial not to underestimate its potential for misuse. The biggest threat faced by Donald Trump’s administration, according to some, may not be traditional military threats, but rather Chinese experimentation with AI that mirrors past reckless research.

Pete Hegseth, a nominee for Defense Secretary under Trump, has been vocal about DEI concerns, but the real focus should be on understanding the implications of AI technology to our foreign policyGetty Images

In current times, there’s more than one arms race happening, with the AI arms race being potentially the most dangerous. The nominee for Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth, should prioritize understanding the implications of AI for national security instead of solely focusing on other issues. Our generation needs a strategic thinker like Kissinger to navigate the complexities posed by AI in global affairs.

Niall Ferguson, author of “Kissinger, Volume 1: 1923-1968: The Idealist,” is the Millbank Family senior fellow at the Hoover Institute.