Ice Rebounds at Both Poles—Climate Complexity Exceeds Current Understanding

Regarding climate change, as Al Gore often remarks, our biggest challenge lies not in what we are unaware of, but rather in what we confidently believe that isn’t accurate.

Recent studies indicate that the Earth’s climate is considerably more intricate than commonly perceived, highlighting the need for pragmatic energy and climate policies.

One study from researchers at China’s Tongji University reveals that after years of dwindling ice sheets, Antarctica has experienced a “remarkable shift”: a record-setting accumulation of ice.

This research utilizes highly precise measurements of Antarctic ice mass gathered from NASA’s GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) satellites.

Since launching the first GRACE satellite in 2002, Antarctica has consistently lost glacier mass. However, this new study shows that this decline reversed between 2021 and 2023.

The melting of Antarctic ice contributes to rising global sea levels, so a halt in melting will help slow this trend. Thus, understanding the dynamics of ice mass in Antarctica is critical.

This recent shift in Antarctica may only slightly alleviate the overall ice loss recorded in 2022, yet it remains a surprising development.

A second paper, currently under peer review, identifies a similar pattern at the opposite pole.

“The decline of Arctic sea ice cover has noticeably slowed in the past 20 years, throughout all seasons,” the studying authors from the US and UK report.

They propose that this “pause” in Arctic sea ice reduction might last for several decades.

These two studies together remind us that the global climate system is inherently unpredictable, defying simplistic assumptions that change follows a linear trajectory.

In 2009, former Sen. John Kerry warned that the Arctic Ocean would be virtually ice-free by 2013, asserting, “Scientists tell us we have a 10-year window — if even that — before catastrophic climate change becomes inevitable and irreversible.”

Today, six years after that deadline passed, catastrophic climate change has not materialized, despite the ongoing warming of the planet primarily driven by fossil fuel combustion.

Debaters in the climate discussion should take heed from Kerry’s overstated warnings.

On one hand, sensationalizing climate change through extreme assertions leads to skepticism when predictions do not come to fruition as anticipated.

Conversely, studies like these two unexpected polar-ice studies illuminate the complexities of climate, without negating the reality and severity of climate change.

Current policymakers seem to be favoring energy realism over a shortsighted rush to achieve net-zero emissions at any cost. However, their newfound pragmatism should still focus on decarbonizing the economy, lowering energy costs, enhancing global energy access, and securing reliable energy supplies.

These aims can sometimes clash, which explains why energy policy is so complex.

We recognize that human activities influence the climate in various ways — through greenhouse gas emissions, land management, air pollution, and vegetation dynamics.

On a global scale, the cumulative effect of these changes results in a warming planet.

However, predicting regional and local impacts is much more challenging, and inherent uncertainties necessitate that adaptation to climate variability hinges on risk management as we balance competing aims.

Fortunately, there are numerous opportunities for pragmatic energy policies — promoting nuclear power and expediting the phase-out of coal are excellent starting points.

The unexpected insights from the recent polar ice studies also underscore the need for preparedness regarding the climate system’s unpredictable behavior, irrespective of the causes of change.

History indicates that climate can shift suddenly, with significant societal consequences.

For example, climate extremes in the 1870s caused considerable distress worldwide, potentially resulting in the deaths of around 4% of the global population.

More recently, the climate extremes of the 1970s led to the establishment of several government programs in the US dedicated to climate monitoring and research, such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

These initiatives are critically important since we cannot always foresee research outcomes. If we could, we would not require data and science.

Perhaps the most crucial takeaway from the new polar ice findings is that ongoing attempts in Washington, DC to reduce climate data and research funding are fundamentally misguided.

The global climate system is likely to unleash more surprises — ignoring them would be perilous.

Roger Pielke Jr. is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and blogs at The Honest Broker on Substack.