Introverted Jewish voters are abandoning the Democratic Party

Jewish voters are feeling anxious but are determined to cast their votes in the upcoming presidential election, and their support for the Democratic Party is declining.

This is the conclusion drawn from a recent poll conducted by the non-partisan Teach Coalition and Honan Strategy Group, aimed at understanding the mindset of Jewish voters in crucial territories like Pennsylvania and swing congressional districts in New York.

The survey was designed to gauge the political engagement level of Jewish voters in light of the approaching anniversary of the October 7 terrorist attacks in Israel and the surge in antisemitism worldwide.

With the aim of understanding this mindset, public opinion polling was carried out among 800 self-identified Jewish voters in the swing state of Pennsylvania and the closely divided New York congressional districts 1, 4, 17, 18, 19, and 22.

The findings revealed that Jewish voters are highly involved in politics and are prepared to make significant decisions on Election Day.

However, a notable trend emerged from the survey: Jewish individuals are hesitant to identify themselves as Jewish.

In the initial contacts, 92% of those contacted from a voter file of likely Jewish voters identified their religious affiliation as something other than Jewish.

According to the researchers, this reluctance to self-identify is reflective of a larger issue at play.

Following incidents where Jewish students were targeted on college campuses earlier this year, regardless of their views on Israel, there was significant anecdotal evidence that Jews started hiding, both literally and figuratively.

The poll now confirms this observation.

Similar to “shy” Trump voters identified in previous elections, researchers have discovered “shy” Jewish voters – those willing to participate in polling calls but unwilling to identify as Jewish to strangers over the phone.

Only after the polls were introduced as focusing on issues faced by the broader Jewish community were a larger number of Jewish voters – 800 for the survey – willing to disclose their Jewish identity.

Overcoming this hurdle, it was found that 56% of Jewish voters in Pennsylvania and 66% in the New York districts felt much more inclined to vote in November due to the events of October 7.

The rise in antisemitism has also contributed to increased Jewish voter engagement, with 67% of those polled in Pennsylvania and New York stating that this factor makes them more likely to vote this fall.

Furthermore, 76% of Pennsylvania Jewish voters and 75% of Jewish voters in the New York swing seats believe that the outcome of the 2024 Presidential election is very or somewhat important.

Although Jewish voters may be a minority nationally, they are highly politically engaged and hold significant influence in key states and districts that could determine the outcome of the elections.

In the 2020 election, President Biden won Pennsylvania by 80,000 votes, following President Trump’s victory by 45,000 votes in 2016.

With an estimated 300,000 Jewish voters in Pennsylvania, they form a potentially decisive voting bloc.

The polls indicate that the presidential race in Pennsylvania is almost evenly split among Jewish voters, with 49% supporting Vice President Harris and 42% supporting Trump.

This marks a substantial decline for Democrats from the 2020 election, where Biden secured 68% of the Jewish vote nationally.

A similar trend was observed in the New York districts, with 56% supporting Harris and 37% supporting Trump.

Additionally, several key New York swing House races in 2022 were decided by narrow margins, emphasizing the potential influence of Jewish voters in these districts.

The high turnout among Jewish voters in recent primaries is expected to continue through November, as indicated by the poll.

In a congressional primary in New York’s 16th district between Latimer and Bowman, the Teach Coalition helped turn out 58% of eligible Jewish voters in Westchester.

These voters represented a significant portion of the overall ballots cast, including early voting ballots.

All indications suggest that Jewish voter turnout will be at record levels this November, potentially playing a pivotal role in key races.

Candidates who ignore the Jewish vote may face defeat in the upcoming elections.

Maury Litwack is the founder and CEO of the Teach Coalition. Bradley Honan is the CEO and president of Honan Strategy Group, a Democratic polling and data analytics company.