Potential Impact of Hurricanes Milton and Helene on Election 2024
Poll-watchers always speculate about the potential “October Surprise” in every presidential election cycle. The recent occurrence of two massive hurricanes hitting the southeast United States has certainly qualified as a surprise – and could have an impact on the closely contested race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.
Natural disasters like Hurricanes Helene and Milton capture public interest in a unique way that other types of news do not.
Government response to these disasters will influence voter opinions. Every instance of aid not reaching affected communities will be magnified in today’s social media-driven world. Therefore, FEMA’s response is crucial.
The continuous focus on the hurricanes in the news could pose a challenge to Harris by reducing the attention her campaign receives in other news coverage.
For Harris, it is a critical moment. It is essential for her to have consistent positive exposure to strengthen her polling numbers. Every minute spent on disaster coverage works against her in this regard.
Donald Trump can easily insert himself into the hurricane narrative in ways that Harris cannot counter. Trump’s actions, such as offering lodging in his South Florida hotels to linemen, may be downplayed by the media, but his allies will spread these messages across social media, reaching millions of voters.
Both parties will seek to control the narrative around disaster relief and clean-up, with a slight advantage for Trump.
Follow the latest from The Post on Hurricane Milton:
Harris’ campaign focus is on bringing change to the nation – a “New Way Forward” instead of a return to what she describes as Trump’s chaotic past.
Harris can only project forward momentum if the White House can provide shelter for the newly homeless and restore power to those in darkness.
FEMA must prove itself capable of handling national emergencies to counter Trump’s criticism. FEMA failures are the last thing Harris wants to be discussing in the final weeks of the campaign.
Another storm potentially striking before the election could divert media attention from Harris’ campaign.
The focus on political performance shifts attention away from the real impact of the storms on families and communities.
Republicans believe Hurricane Sandy in 2012 boosted Obama’s chances, and the current hurricanes may favor Trump in a similarly unexpected way.
The double impact of these hurricanes could shift the debate away from Harris’ strengths towards Trump’s advantages, potentially influencing the election results.
Henry Olsen is a senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center.
