President Trump’s Risky Gamble on Putin Likely to Backfire — Russia has Evolved into a Military Powerhouse

President Trump’s recent announcement regarding direct talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin aims to bring an end to the conflict in Ukraine without requiring any concessions from Russia. This move threatens to dismantle the post-World War II order and marks one of the US’s greatest betrayals of an ally.

In his remarks, Trump cited Putin on the importance of “common sense,” revealing his lack of understanding of a regime that operates without it.

Russia’s leadership has established a regime characterized by organized crime and a blatant disregard for human life. Ukraine’s fight is a bid to escape Russia’s grip and embrace Western values. In this context, “common sense” holds no sway in contemporary Russia.

Russia is now a more oppressive nation than it was just three years ago.

While the West has severed ties with Russia, Russia has similarly turned away from the West.

This shift is reflected not only in the availability of Chinese goods in stores but also in how, after invading Ukraine and facing resistance, Russia has resorted to portraying itself as a beleaguered fortress.

The Putin regime has transformed its economy into a war-oriented machine, fostering a form of globalization driven by theft and mounting a campaign to indoctrinate youth, ensuring a steady supply of soldiers for years ahead.

Putin will gladly exploit Trump’s inclination to lessen America’s global obligations; however, if he manages to obliterate Ukrainian nationhood with Trump’s assistance, the United States should expect only fleeting gratitude in return.

The most notable transformation in Russia since 2022 has been its evolution into a militarized state.

Military manufacturing plants, facing a boom in demands for weapon production amid labor shortages, have recruited 600,000 skilled workers with high salaries.

This surge in military production has contributed to consistent economic growth, defying expectations. In 2023, the Russian economy expanded by 3.6%, greatly exceeding the January International Monetary Fund’s estimate of 0.3%, with projections for 2024 suggesting a growth range of 3.8% to 4.0%, far above the predicted 1.3%.

If hostilities come to a halt, altering this trend will prove challenging. During a visit last year to the Uralvagonzavod factory in Nizhny Tagil, Putin assured workers that the military-industrial complex could expect orders for the next five to ten years.

The regime has also formed a mercenary army, consisting of men from impoverished regions lured in by salaries of about $2,000 per month.

This total compensation, encompassing bonuses and death benefits, can far exceed the earnings from 25 to 30 years of average work in their respective areas; in many cases, they are essentially selling their lives.

The presence of mercenaries encourages Russia to uphold a substantial military force.

If a significant number of seasoned mercenaries were released suddenly, they might return to jobs that pay significantly less, potentially disrupting social stability.

In addition to its transition to a war economy, Russia is becoming a core part of an international economic network that operates outside the reach of Western authorities and regulations.

The government now encourages companies to disregard intellectual property laws, permitting the production of goods that typically require royalty fees. Companies producing pharmaceuticals, medical devices, and other products are now allowed to bypass patent laws and licensing agreements.

Illegal copies of Western software are rampant throughout Russia and are sold to clients in Africa and East Asia.

This lawlessness extends beyond commercial entities.

NATO officials confirmed on July 28 that US intelligence thwarted a Russian plot to assassinate Armin Papperger, the CEO of the German defense firm Rheinmetall, which produces artillery shells for Ukraine.

This incident was one of several Russian schemes aimed at targeting European defense executives backing Ukraine. In July, multiple packages traced back to Lithuania exploded in DHL cargo facilities in Britain and Germany, as well as at a courier firm in Poland.

Western investigators believe these events were tests of Russia’s capability to plant explosives on cargo planes destined for the US and Canada.

NATO deputy assistant secretary general James Appathurai stated on January 28 that the West is taking steps to deter terrorism from Russia by “establishing red lines at the highest levels.”

This minimal deterrent approach raises concerns about why even planning a terrorist act does not signify crossing a red line.

Finally, the Putin regime is fostering propaganda efforts aimed at galvanizing support for ongoing military endeavors in the future.

Russians are subjected to “talk shows” disguised as indoctrination sessions across major TV networks. Though various personalities take part, the consistent narrative portrays Ukraine as a Nazi state allied with NATO to threaten Russia.

Massive television screens occupy spaces such as public waiting areas and cafeterias, effectively bombarding those who choose to sit down with government propaganda.

The foremost focus of this indoctrination is the youth of Russia.

Children are tasked with making camouflage nets and candles for use in trenches. On May 9, commemorating the victory in World War II, children donned military surplus and sung patriotic songs. In one Moscow school, children dressed in pilots’ hats and naval gear formed groups mimicking artillery, naval, and machine-gun units, complete with insignia, and were inspected by a Ukraine war veteran.

Additionally, children are being recruited en masse into “Firsts,” a new organization resembling the Soviet Union’s Pioneers.

The Firsts assist the elderly, maintain monuments to World War II found in every town, and participate in motivational discussions led by Ukraine war veterans.

Russia is strategically preparing for a prolonged campaign of sabotage and destabilization directed at the West.

When Trump asserts his intention to stop the violence by relying on the individual accountable for sparking it, he demonstrates a complete disregard for the ensuing consequences in the region.

Russians are referring to criminal governance as a new world order. In October, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov claimed the war between Russia and Ukraine exemplifies the irreversible end of Western supremacy.

In light of the nearly one million casualties among Russian and Ukrainian forces in a conflict Putin initiated to reinforce his grip on power, the regime’s only rationale for future expansion remains.

The most significant obstacle in their path is Ukraine.

David Satter is the author of “The Less You Know, the Better You Sleep: Russia’s Road to Terror and Dictatorship under Yeltsin and Putin.” He serves as vice chairman of the Remembrance Society, which commemorates victims of totalitarian regimes.