Probable Future Saudi-Israeli Relations

Could Israel and Saudi Arabia be moving closer to normalization, despite ongoing regional conflicts and regardless of the outcome of the US presidential election this week?

There are increasing signs that this significant agreement could come to fruition within the year.

Prior to the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas on Israel, Saudi Arabia and Israel were engaged in deep discussions about peace and expanding the Abraham Accords.

These hopes seemed dashed after a year of war with over 40,000 reported Palestinian casualties, according to Gaza’s Hamas-run Health Ministry, and Saudi Arabia’s firm stance on the importance of a Palestinian state.

Despite this, the Abraham Accords have remained intact, indicating that these aspirations may not be completely shattered.

Trade has been a significant benefit of the Accords, which normalized relations between Israel and three Arab countries: United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, and Morocco, and continues to thrive.

In 2023, UAE-Israel trade reached $2.9 billion. By mid-2024, it had already reached $1.922 billion, potentially reaching $3.3 billion by year-end, according to Israel’s Central Bureau of Statistics.

Morocco and Bahrain have also experienced noticeable growth in trade this year.

While tourism to Abraham Accords countries has declined due to Israeli travel advisories, there has been a quiet rise in Arab delegations visiting Israel since the war, according to Dan Feferman, executive director of Sharaka, an NGO promoting people-to-people peace between Israel and Accords countries.

For example, in July, a delegation of 28 Moroccan social-media influencers visited Israel. They toured the southern communities destroyed by Hamas, visited the Yad Vashem Holocaust museum, and engaged in discussions with Israeli politicians regarding counter-extremism.

Even if they disagreed with Israel’s response to Oct. 7, Arab groups acknowledged the impact of the attack, Feferman notes.

The UAE and Bahrain, who signed the Abraham Accords in 2020 with support from Saudi Arabia, could have withdrawn their support after Oct. 7. However, Riyadh seems to have become more accepting of Israel.

A spring report from IMPACT-se in London revealed that Saudi Arabia and the UAE’s Education Ministries made significant updates to their curriculum, removing anti-Israel content from textbooks.

Alongside finance, the main driver of the Abraham Accords has been the Gulf states’ recognition of the threat posed by Iran and its proxies.

The Accords were seen as a first step towards a potential regional defense pact, ideally supported by the US in case of an Iranian attack.

For the Gulf states, Israel’s military capabilities were crucial for such a pact. However, the Oct. 7 Hamas infiltration raised questions about Israel’s strength and the foundation of the Accords.

Since July, Israel has carried out targeted assassinations of Hamas leaders and weakened their military infrastructure. Retaliatory strikes against Iran strengthened Israel’s position.

Instead of targeting Iran’s nuclear or energy facilities — a move that could provoke retaliation on Saudi territory — Israel focused on precise strikes against missile manufacturing facilities and systems used in recent attacks on Israel.

While Saudi Arabia and the UAE condemned the impact of the strikes on regional stability, they did not specifically mention Israel or rebuke them, indicating tacit approval.

This reveals a visible and hidden world, with likely backchannel communications at play.

Recently, Prime Minister Netanyahu addressed the UN General Assembly, presenting a stark choice for the Middle East: either be cursed by Iran’s aggression or blessed by normalization with Saudi Arabia.

“Which of these two maps that I showed you will shape our future?” he asked. “Will it be the blessings of peace and prosperity for Israel, our Arab partners, and the rest of the world? Or will it be the curse in which Iran and its proxies spread carnage and chaos everywhere?”

When it comes to the requirement for a Palestinian state, reading between the lines is essential.

While Israel cannot agree to a Palestinian state overnight, given the hostages in Gaza and leadership issues within the Palestinian Authority, starting a process could set normalization in motion. Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman reportedly told US Secretary of State Antony Blinken that the Palestinian issue is more about optics for his people instead of a priority.

A second term for former President Donald Trump could make a Saudi peace deal easier, as he played a role in the Abraham Accords in 2020.

However, Vice President Kamala Harris could also facilitate a deal — unless Biden does so before Jan. 20.

The Middle East has shown that it can change rapidly. If Hamas intended to derail the momentum between Israel and Saudi Arabia on Oct. 7, they may have failed once again.

Maayan Hoffman is Executive Editor and Strategist for ILTV News and a correspondent for The Media Line.