Putin’s Ambition Extending Beyond Ukraine
Before Vladimir Putin’s annual address to parliament, politicians from Transnistria, a pro-Kremlin breakaway region of Moldova, appealed to the Russian president for “protection” against Moldova’s “escalating pressure.” Moscow responded by prioritizing the protection of its “compatriots.”
This highlights Putin’s aspirations beyond Ukraine.
As Ukraine fights for survival with American aid delayed in Congress, Putin’s ambitions in Europe edge closer to reality: undermining Ukrainian independence, weakening the European Union and NATO, restoring Russia to its pre-1991 borders, and establishing pro-Russian governments in Europe.
All of this occurs as Russia readies for a conflict with the West, as warned by Estonia’s Foreign Intelligence Service.
While Putin possesses the will, he lacks the power to achieve his imperialistic objectives.
He may not be a military strategist, but rather a former KGB officer adept at exploiting his adversaries’ weaknesses.
His current focus lies on two vulnerabilities in Europe: Moldova and the Balkans.
By manipulating tensions in these regions to cause instability, Putin diverts Western attention and resources away from Ukraine.
Moscow appears particularly determined to punish Moldova, a nation situated between Ukraine and Romania, for its political independence and refusal to align with Russia.
The Kremlin instigated Transnistria, a region between the Dniester River and Ukraine’s border with Moldova, to declare independence two decades ago, a move recognized by Russia.
Putin sees Transnistria as a strategic point for his maneuvers due to the presence of Russian troops and citizens.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov expressed the Kremlin’s concerns about the fate of the 200,000 residents in Transnistria, aiming to prevent them from becoming victims of Western interference.
Lavrov also cautioned Moldova about potentially being the next target in the ongoing hybrid war against Russia.
Vadim Krasnoselsky, the Russian-backed leader of Transnistria, recently called for increased military drills and readiness.
As one of Europe’s poorest countries, Moldova struggles to counter Russia’s provocations.
The Kremlin has tried to oust the government, hinder Moldova’s EU aspirations, and exert pressure through energy tactics like cutting natural gas supplies from Gazprom.
The Balkans present another opportunity for Putin to sow chaos and incite unrest through his proxies.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned about Russia’s plans in the Balkans, emphasizing a long-term strategy by Moscow.
Lavrov also highlighted the growing tension in the Balkans, suggesting a potentially explosive situation in the heart of Europe.
Decades after Yugoslavia’s breakup, recent clashes between Serbia and Kosovo reignited ethnic tensions.
The Serbian president accused the Kosovo government of ethnic cleansing against Serbs, leading to heightened military activities along the border.
Russia views the Balkans as a weak spot in Europe, using information tactics to fuel ethnic strife, incite protests, and solidify arms deals.
Despite NATO’s presence in Kosovo, Russia’s interference through proxies remains evident.
A crisis is brewing in Bosnia and Herzegovina as well.
Milorad Dodik, the pro-Russia leader of the Serb Republic, met with Putin to strengthen ties, aligning with Moscow’s goals of separatism and partnership.
Putin perceives the EU Force in Bosnia and Herzegovina as vulnerable and hesitant to act against separatist movements.
Putin is gambling on Western disinterest in the Balkans, Baltics, Moldova, Ukraine, and Poland, anticipating a breakdown of promises and divisions to gain global influence.
The Kremlin’s current strategy aims to stoke conflicts in these regions, forcing world leaders reliant on Western security guarantees to recognize the fragile nature of their security.
Ivana Stradner is a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Jason Smart is a special correspondent for Ukraine’s Kyiv Post.
